A second consecutive day for the markets with a late push lower after being up strongly for the day. The Friday push lower still allowed for some slight gains, but a black candle was printed, which should have led to a down open this morning. Not to be, as the market gapped up big this morning due to more Fed stuff. Ms Yellen was meeting President Obama, and the usual bulls said why not, let's get this market even higher. It worked well, until the last hour of action when a big sell hit, which was enough to turn all the indexes slightly red for the day. The losses are minor, but the reversal large, and again, two days in a row, but on this the second day, no late rally allowing for slight gains. They closed pretty much on the lows, which is a real change of trend, but trends are not broken with one day’s action, thus, the burden of proof is still clearly on the shoulders of the bears to follow through. We know how much the bears hate to follow through these past many years.
The bears have had chance after chance to make something happen, and they just never get the job done, so why should this be any different. We'll see if they can get a strong gap down in the morning that follows through all day. What happened late in the day shows exhaustion, since it was a repeated event over two consecutive trading days. It's really now or never for the bears. If tomorrow is a tepid day, and we get unwinding on those nasty looking daily at index oscillators, then the market is just buying time before the next blast up and out. The bears need to act, and they need to act now, with fury. The daily charts are starting to unwind, thus, they need to get busy. If they expect to get it done when things get oversold they're not thinking clearly. The longer we go lateral the better it is for the bulls. So, again, it's now time for the bears. They haven't done well, but they are being given another chance. No more excuses, Fed or not. The time is now!
As I've said over and over, the world of technical analysis is taking a bad hit for being able to forecast the market. What used to work is struggling to do so, due to the actions being taken by Yellen. She has repeatedly interfered, and it's causing technical analysis to be far less reliable, which is very sad to me. Many folks are getting quite disgusted with playing the market, since we can't have a fair and even playing field. She has an agenda in mind and won't stop butting in. You wonder if there's a point when the market will say enough is enough. How much can she continue to do that will allow the markets to react positively, since the news coming out is so negative? She has reduced our GDP to nearly negative from 1.4% in just a week’s time. What is she seeing that we don't, and why is the market ignoring so much bad news? It's really astonishing to watch the market say it doesn't care what bad news hits. It just keeps on chopping its way higher. Bottom line is it's really disappointing to do my work and not trust it the way I have in the past due to the actions of one person, and knowing those actions are not in our best interest longer-term. Oh well, it is what it is.
Earnings season started this evening and we're zero for two. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) warned, and so did Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE:JNPR). Both stocks were lower after hours. A sign of things to come? Who knows, and also, who knows if the market will even care. Everything is pretty much fine for this market. Bad news? Who cares. Good news? Bought up immediately. It's in a pretty much no lose situation, but, again, you have to respect the news for what it is and not be complacent. The market should be getting killed. Poor monthly negative divergences on all the index charts. Bad looking MACD crosses on the daily charts from elevated levels. Ridiculous valuations, and the list can extend out much further, but you get the idea by now. So we'll see. We'll see if we're still in the all-news is good-news market, or if the bears can take advantage of two straight days of late fades. Again, it's now or never, but the earnings aren't helping after hours. A bad start.