The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and forex speculators added to their overall US Dollar bullish bets last week after two weeks of decreases.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $35.81 billion as of Tuesday September 23rd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$4.39 billion from the $31.42 billion total long position that was registered on September 16th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The aggregate US dollar position remains strongly bullish with the US dollar position trading over +$30 billion for six straight weeks and being at the second highest level since June of 2013. The US dollar index, meanwhile, continued its uptrend to trade over the 85.00 threshold later in the week.
Overall Speculative Net Contracts
In terms of total speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts rose sharply last week to +238,056 contracts as of Tuesday September 23rd. This was a change by +52,598 contracts from the total of +185,458 contracts as of Tuesday September 16th. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.
Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:
Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators raised their bets last week in favor of the British pound sterling and the New Zealand dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso.
Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:
- Euro positions declined last week after rebounding for two straight weeks. The euro spec position continues to remain very bearish while the EUR/USD exchange rate ended the week under the 1.2700 level
- British pound sterling positions remained on the bearish side last week for a second week, although a small bearish position (-1,050). Pound sterling contracts failed to rebound strongly after the Scottish independence vote failed
- Japanese yen bets fell back last week after gaining for the previous two weeks. Yen bets are back over -100,000 contracts as the USD/JPY has surged higher behind strong USD strength
- Swiss franc bets declined slightly last week as Franc positions have now been on the bearish side for fourteen straight weeks
- Canadian dollar positions decreased last week for a second week and now positions are at an almost neutral level (+3,064 contracts). The USD/CAD exchange rate traded higher above the 1.1100 major level last week for the first time since early 2014
- Australian dollar net positions fell for a third week last week as net bullish positions have eroded to just +8,347 contracts. The AUD/USD pair strongly declined again last week to close the week just above the 0.8750 major level
- New Zealand dollar net positions edged higher after falling for seven straight weeks as positions (+1,841 contracts) hover just above neutral and negative territory
- Mexican peso positions declined last week for a third straight week as peso spec positions dropped to the lowest level in a month (+10,504 contracts)
This latest COT data is through Tuesday September 23rd and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.
Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price
EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures
DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change 08/19/201439646056774195599-138825-1280808/26/201440270953989204646-150657-1183209/02/201441985059398220821-161423-1076609/09/201448430659376216881-157505391809/16/201439765279552216701-1371492035609/23/201439893760654202619-141965-4816
British Pound Sterling:
Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures
DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change 08/19/2014237291722305894313287-551208/26/2014233435710025553515467218009/02/201423897367538580909448-601909/09/20142565918133054603267271727909/16/20141345605561762198-6581-3330809/23/20141340615369154741-10505531
Japanese Yen:
Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures
DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change 08/19/201420318017976105247-87271-617408/26/201421800919512122403-102891-1562009/02/201423093715485132793-117308-1441709/09/201425562417280117953-1006731663509/16/201420823537617120799-831821749109/23/201422221428391133813-105422-22240
Swiss Franc:
Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures
DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change 08/19/201450414617421666-15492186708/26/201453761746620505-13039245309/02/201460436916622333-13167-12809/09/201477317985623681-13825-65809/16/2014549291288924285-11396242909/23/201452124835421729-13375-1979
Canadian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures
DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change 08/19/201411330141844345637281-1071708/26/201410844138522328595663-161809/02/201410598435333261429191352809/09/2014102951334002177011630243909/16/201411027537347298037544-408609/23/20147653027673246093064-4480
Australian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures
DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change 08/19/2014103432657472917336574702808/26/2014107819716582972041938536409/02/2014114146770502800349047710909/09/2014126831733213209241229-781809/16/201497839555883344822140-1908909/23/201410575647187388408347-13793
New Zealand Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures
DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change 08/19/20142404816796476412032-139708/26/20142361916405456411841-19109/02/20142331915623545110172-166909/09/2014249201436948479522-65009/16/201416050981486941120-840209/23/201416146977979381841721
Mexican Peso:
Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures
DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change 08/19/20141411755620743800124071244808/26/20141416657168035010366702426309/02/2014144255754443628039164249409/09/2014155265710213250338518-64609/16/2014134445694304738422046-1647209/23/2014151319582784777410504-11542
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.