Market movers today
The result of the first ECB TLTRO will be announced and we expect a fairly low take of EUR97bn. The banks may be hesitant to participate ahead of the publication of the Asset Quality Review at the end of October and hence may wait for the second TLTRO in December.
Another key event will be the Scottish referendum. The outcome is uncertain and should it turn out to be a 'Yes', it could have significant market impact.
In the US housing starts are released. We look for a decline but mainly due to strong levels in previous months. The housing market seems to be recovering, as we saw another strong increase in the US NAHB housing index yesterday and home sales have been better as well over the past months. The US also releases initial jobless claims, which rose more than expected last week but might have been distorted due to Labour Day. In that case it should fall back today.
UK retail sales are expected to be robust and rise 0.4% m/m in August. Domestic demand indicators have remained strong lately, not least service PMI, while manufacturing has eased a bit.
Ireland will release the first Q2 GDP reading. While leading indicators were strong during Q2, we look for a moderate reading of 0.3% q/q as there could be some negative payback after very strong readings in both Q1 and Q4. Compared to a year ago we expect GDP to be up by more than 4%.
In Switzerland the SNB will announce rates. It will be interesting to see if it follows in the footsteps of the ECB and introduces negative rates.
Fed chairman Janet Yellen speaks today but she is unlikely to reveal more after yesterday's press conference, which had a hawkish twist as the continued time dependent forward guidance was downplayed.
In Scandi markets the main focus will be on the meeting in Norges Bank.
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