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Is The 6 Month Rally In Bonds Over?

Published 06/18/2014, 12:21 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Weekly 10- and 30-Year Treasury Bonds Overview

It's been a good year for bonds in just six months. Popular bond ETF iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury (ARCA:TLT) was up as much as 12% at the start of this month. Most investors would be happy to make 12% in a year owning government bonds.

Is the six month rally in bonds over? In my humble opinion it's way too soon to answer this question. The above chart does reflect that the yield on the U.S. 10-Year note and U.S. 30-Year bond are attempting to break above resistance of the falling channel that has been created since the first of this year.

These charts are both "weekly" so we will more accurately know if a breakout in yields has actually taken place toward the end of this week. A breakout doesn't suggest the bond bull move is over, yet it would suggest the big decline in yields might need a breather for a while.

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