Interest rates have moved up a good deal of late, as the yield on the 10-year note is up 28% in the past 10-days. During this time frame (ARCA:TLT has been hit hard!
This sharp rally took place after (TNX) hit triple support in the chart above. With the long-term trend in rates lower, this would appear to be nothing more than a counter-trend bounce in an overall falling interest rate environment.
The odds are low the following is taking shape… a large bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern in yields. If this pattern read is correct, yields will need to keep pushing sharply higher. Line (1) of the long-term falling channel in yields remains very stiff resistance to this pattern.
If this is a inverse head and shoulders in yields, TNX first has to reach line (1) and then take it out.
As I shared earlier the odds are low that this pattern read is correct. If the read would happen to be correct, the impact would be large! Keep this pattern in mind and should yields reach line (1), keep a close eye on them!