In Sweden, the weeks ahead contain three interesting data points, two of them published simultaneously on Tuesday (12 May at 09.30 CEST): The consumer price index and Riksbank minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting. As for inflation, we expect it to come in a little above the Riksbank's forecast.
In Norway the outlook for core inflation is therefore uncertain, but we are assuming that the annual rate will be unchanged at 2.3%.
Norges Bank is set to tap NOK4bn in the NGB 4.5% May 2019 (NST 473) bond tomorrow. The NST471 bond will be redeemed this week and this, together with coupons of almost NOK75bn hitting the market this week, will lend support to NGBs.
In Denmark it will be particularly interesting in the coming week to see the March figures for the current account. There is usually a significant seasonal dip in March, because this is the month when many Danish companies pay dividends to foreign shareholders.
Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) sold DKK33.9bn of FX to support the DKK in April. The action highlights that the downward pressure on EUR/DKK has reversed and that DN is now reacting to cap EUR/DKK upside. But given the huge FX reserve we do not believe a rate hike is imminent.
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