This issue covers two weeks due to the Danish bank holiday on Thursday and Friday this week.
In Sweden , the weeks ahead contain two data points of particular interest: industrial data (Tuesday, 3 May at 09:30 CEST), which we expect to show things have normalised but we remain wary of the effects of the early Easter, and inflation (Thursday, 12 May at 09:30 CEST), where we expect an outcome a notch or two below the Riksbank's latest forecast.
Swedish financial markets are probably in for a period where rates will come down and the SEK might - at least for domestic reasons and temporarily - weaken somewhat.
In Norway the main event is the rate-setting meeting at Norges Bank on 12 May. We expect no change as the stronger NOK is mitigated by the higher oil price. Focus is on whether Norges Bank will hint of a June rate cut or not.
Also coming up are GDP figures for Q1 and we expect the mainland economy to grow 0.3% q/q, which is slightly higher than Norges Bank assumed in March. Statistics Norway should also release CPI data for April and we expect the annual rate of inflation to hold at 3.3%, driven by a correction of food prices and airfares following the effects of Easter in March.
In Denmark Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) is due to publish currency reserves data for April on Tuesday. If we compare the estimated and the actual net position for banks, there is a slight discrepancy here at the end of April of around DKK3bn, which could point to modest FX purchases (sale of DKK) by DN in the market. However, another clear possibility is simply an erroneous forecast, in part due to uncertain estimates on tax payments.
The Danish debt office will tap in the 'usual' 2Y and 10Y bonds.
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