The dollar lost ground against the other major currencies on Thursday, but still remained close to a seven-month high as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen did not comment on future monetary policy moves of the Fed. Instead, Yellen spoke briefly on the importance of assessing how monetary policy impacts the global economy in the post-crisis period. A stronger dollar remains a problem to the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said Thursday, noting accommodative monetary policy helped the economy withstand the impact. Earlier in the day, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending November 7 was unchanged from a week earlier at 276,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to fall by 6,000 to 270,000. For today, the euro zone and Germany are to publish preliminary data on third quarter economic growth while the U.S. is to publish data on retail sales, producer prices, and a preliminary report on consumer sentiment
The EUR/USD posted its largest one-day move in a month, after strong indications of diverging monetary policies from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in the coming months. The euro was supported after ECB president Mario Draghi offered further hints that the bank is ready to introduce additional stimulus measures in order to boost inflation throughout the euro zone. At the same time, Yellen’s omission of any significant comments regarding the Fed’s monetary policy in December added further pressure on the dollar. Initial jobless claims data came out unchanged when analysts expected a drop by 6,000, causing no significant impact on prices. For today, the euro zone and Germany are to publish preliminary data on third quarter economic growth while the U.S. is to publish data on retail sales, producer prices, and a preliminary report on consumer sentiment
Pivot: 1.0745Support: 1.0745 1.0705 1.067Resistance: 1.083 1.086 1.089Scenario 1: Long positions above 1.0745 with targets @ 1.083 & 1.086 in extension.Scenario 2: Below 1.0745 look for further downside with 1.0705 & 1.067 as targets.Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
WTI Oil
U.S. crude oil prices fell sharply on Thursday, due to a stronger than expected inventory build last week supply and despite weak supply forecasts from OPEC, prices fell down to their lowest level since late-August. On Thursday morning, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Weekly Petroleum Report that crude inventories nationwide increased by 4.2 million barrels for the week ending November 6. U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Elsewhere, OPEC said in its monthly report for October that its production fell to 31.38 million bpd last month, down by 256,000 bpd from its September level. It marked the first decline in OPEC since March. OPEC forecast that supply from rival producers in 2016 will decline next year, providing some indications that its long-term strategy aimed at regaining market share is working.
Pivot: 50.9Support: 37.5 33 28Resistance: 50.9 56.6 61.5Scenario 1: Short positions below 50.9 with targets @ 37.5 & 33 in extension.Scenario 2: Above 50.9 look for further upside with 56.6 & 61.5 as targets.Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.
Another day of dropping oil prices and higher interest rate forecasts pushed stocks lower on Thursday, same as the day before. The S&P 500 closed down 0.69%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.89%, and the Nasdaq slid 0.37%. Investors are still assessing the idea that rates are likely to rise next month for the first time in nearly a decade and Thursday’s meeting of Federal Reserve officials failed to convince them otherwise. Financials stocks were the worst performers Thursday as a December rate hike appeared more likely. Major banks Bank of America (N:BAC), Citigroup (N:C), Goldman Sachs (N:GS) and Barclays (L:BARC) were lower. Weaker crude oil prices also hit the energy sector hard as major oilers including Exxon Mobil (N:XOM), Chevron (N:CVX) and Royal Dutch Shell (L:RDSa) fell significantly. Today, in the U.S., data on retail sales, producer prices, and a preliminary report on consumer sentiment will be in focus
Pivot: 1990Support: 1990 1900 1867Resistance: 2116 2135 2180Scenario 1: Long positions above 1990 with targets @ 2116 & 2135 in extension.Scenario 2: Below 1990 look for further downside with 1900 & 1867 as targets.Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Apple (O:AAPL)
Apple is in talks with U.S. banks to develop a service, similar to Paypal's Venmo, that would allow consumers to make payments from their checking accounts to recipients through their Apple devices, The Wall Street Journal reported. Despite Apple's reported plans to expand Apple Pay, the stock shows very little change, ending Thursday 0.2% lower.
Pivot: 107.5 Support: 107.5 102.1 92.35 Resistance: 125 133 136.3 Scenario 1: Long positions above 107.5 with targets @ 125 & 133 in extension. Scenario 2: Below 107.5 look for further downside with 102.1 & 92.35 as targets. Comment: The RSI is supported by a rising trend line.