The euro dropped to a three-month low before a European Central Bank meeting later on Thursday, while the Mexican peso rose to a six-week high after the conclusion of the final U.S. presidential debate before the November election. The main focus for investors is whether or not ECB President Mario Draghi will give any indications that the bank may alter its quantitative easing program. The Mexican peso, which is closely watched, is vulnerable to Republican Donald Trump's economic policy proposals and rose to 18.4555 to the dollar its highest level since Sept. 8 as the most recent opinion polls have favored Clinton. A CNN snap poll of debate watchers found Clinton won with 52 percent, and Trump trailed with 39 percent. The pound held steady at $1.2281 ahead of British Prime Minister Theresa May's first European Union summit since Britain's vote to exit the bloc. For today, the U.K. is to report on retail sales, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi and the U.S. is to produce data on jobless claims, existing home sales and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
EUR/USDThe euro appears to be under heavy pressure against the dollar, remaining close to a three-month low, heading into the ECB meeting on Thursday. ECB president Draghi is expected to keep all possibilities open today while managing market fears of a QE tapering. Meanwhile the Fed’s Beige Book released last night showed overall that the US economy maintained a steady growth pace between late August and early October. The latest debate between presidential candidates brought little change in major currencies with the main driver for the day being the ECB meeting and the press conference that follows by ECB president Mario Draghi. Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce data on jobless claims, existing home sales and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
Pivot: 1.1005Support: 1.095 1.0925 1.089Resistance: 1.1005 1.1025 1.104Scenario 1: short positions below 1.1005 with targets at 1.0950 & 1.0925 in extension.Scenario 2: above 1.1005 look for further upside with 1.1025 & 1.1040 as targets.Comment: the RSI shows downside momentum.
Gold prices held onto solid gains on Wednesday as a batch of mixed data on the U.S. housing market added some pressure on the dollar. U.S. housing starts fell to a one-and-a-half year low in September, but a rise in the construction of single-family homes pointed to underlying strength in the housing market. The Commerce Department said U.S. housing starts unexpectedly fell 9.0% to hit 1.047 million units last month. That compared to forecasts for an increase of 2.5%. The dollar has come under pressure in recent sessions amid speculation over whether the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand an increase in interest rates before the end of the year. For today investors will be expecting jobless claims, existing home sales and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
Pivot: 1264.5Support: 1264.5 1260 1256Resistance: 1277 1281 1290Scenario 1: long positions above 1264.50 with targets at 1277.00 & 1281.00 in extension.Scenario 2: below 1264.50 look for further downside with 1260.00 & 1256.00 as targets.Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Oil prices fell on Thursday on profit taking, after markets posted a rise the previous day, due to a drop in U.S. inventories and an expectation of a cut in production by OPEC. Crude oil inventories fell by 5.2 million barrels last week, the EIA said. That was compared to forecasts for an inventory rise of 2.7 million barrels after a rise of 4.9 million barrels in the previous week. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plans to meet on Nov. 30 and hopes to decide on a half a million to 1 million barrels per day oil production cut, and the producer cartel hopes that non-OPEC exporters, especially Russia, will cooperate. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Wednesday that the cut will help reduce an oversupplied market and stimulate new investments in the sector.
Pivot: 50.88Support: 50.88 50.53 50.11Resistance: 51.92 52.17 52.54Scenario 1: long positions above 50.88 with targets at 51.92 & 52.17 in extension.Scenario 2: below 50.88 look for further downside with 50.53 & 50.11 as targets.Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.
The main U.S. stock indices were higher on Wednesday, as gains in the Oil & Gas, Basic Materials and Financials sectors led shares higher. The top performers on the S&P 500 were First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:FSLR) which rose 5.94%, Transocean Ltd (NYSE:RIG) which was up 5.61% and Michael Kors Holdings Limited (NYSE:KORS) which gained 5.45%. In addition, rising oil prices following a decrease in US inventories lifted the energy sector and earnings from Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) provided a boost to financials. Morgan Stanley (gained 1.9 percent after posting a better-than-expected quarterly profit. A disappointing revenue forecast from Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) limited gains on Wall Street, as the company tumbled 5.9 percent, posting the worst performance in the market. For today investors will be expecting jobless claims, existing home sales and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
Pivot: 2117 Support: 2117 2108 2100 Resistance: 2152 2156 2163 Scenario 1: long positions above 2117.00 with targets at 2152.00 & 2156.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 2117.00 look for further downside with 2108.00 & 2100.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.