The sterling surged more than 2% against the dollar to reach near one-month highs on Monday, as public sentiment shifted against a potential Brexit, as concerns related to the U.K.'s possible departure from the European Union continue to ease. In the euro area, major stock indices soared on Monday as the "Remain" campaign gained support over the weekend before of a controversial referendum later this week. Last week, officials on both sides suspended campaigning for two consecutive days following the tragic murder of Labour Party parliament member Jo Cox. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 surged 3%, while the broader Euro Stoxx 600 Index jumped 3.65%. At one point on Monday, nearly 80% of respondents supported the Stay vote, up from 60% late last week. Simultaneously, top British businessmen, including Virgin Group founder Richard Branson urged voters to avert a Brexit in order to prevent a potential collapse in the Pound. Meanwhile, yields on the Germany 10-Year rose three basis points to 0.05%. For today, Canada is to release data on wholesale sales while later in the week, investors are eyeing a testimony on monetary policy by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, due on Tuesday and Wednesday and the long awaited June 23 referendum that will decide whether the U.K. will remain in the E.U or not.
The dollar remains at one-week lows against the euro on Monday, as concerns over a potential British exit from the European Union eased, supporting market sentiment. Brexit concerns subsided after two opinion polls published on Saturday showed that support for the 'Remain' campaign had regained its lead over a vote to leave. Prior to the long awaited June 23 referendum, investors are also focusing on a monetary policy statement by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, due on Tuesday and Wednesday, less than a week after the central bank kept interest rates unchanged near record lows and lowered its projections for hikes in 2017 and 2018.
Pivot: 1.13
Support: 1.13 1.1265 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1355 1.1385 1.1415
Scenario 1: long positions above 1.1300 with targets @ 1.1355 & 1.1385 in extension.
Scenario 2: below 1.1300 look for further downside with 1.1265 & 1.1215 as targets.Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum.
Gold prices fell on Monday amid easing Brexit concerns and as a surge in global equities and crude oil prices weighed heavily on the safe-haven asset. In the euro area, major stock indices soared on Monday as the "Remain" campaign was supported over the weekend, adding significant pressure on the precious metal. In India, one of the biggest buyers of physical gold, investors kept a close eye on the Indian rupee after Raghuram Rajan, the head of the India Central Bank announced over the weekend that he will not be seeking another term. Prior to the long awaited June 23 referendum, investors are also focusing on a monetary policy statement by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, due on Tuesday and Wednesday
Pivot: 1297
Support: 1277 1272 1264
Resistance: 1297 1308 1315
Scenario 1: short positions below 1297.00 with targets @ 1277.60 & 1272.00 in extension.Scenario
2: above 1297.00 look for further upside with 1308.00 & 1315.00 as targets.
Comment: technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.
WTI Oil
Oil prices posted a strong rally that was supported by easing concerns Britain would leave the European Union after a referendum this week, allowing market participants to focus on supply issues. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports also dropped despite high production levels, suggesting demand remains in a deficit to supply. Saudi Arabia's crude exports in April fell to 7.444 million barrels per day from 7.541 million bpd in March, official data showed on Monday.The world's largest oil exporter and OPEC member produced 10.262 million bpd in April, compared with 10.224 million bpd a month earlier, the data showed. Potentially adding to supply, Iran has increased its crude exports capacity at its main terminal on Kharg Island to allow eight tankers to load simultaneously.
Prior to the long awaited June 23 referendum, energy traders are now focusing on today’s inventory data from the API.
Pivot: 48.6
Support: 48.6 47.77 47.3
Resistance: 49.7 50.2 50.7
Scenario 1: long positions above 48.60 with targets @ 49.70 & 50.20 in extension.
Scenario 2: below 48.60 look for further downside with 47.77 & 47.30 as targets.
Comment: a support base at 48.60 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
US 500
U.S. stocks posted sharp gains on Monday as Brexit fears continued to subside, triggering a massive rise in equity markets throughout the euro area that spilled over in the U.S., providing significant support to the major indices. In Monday's session, both the FTSE 100 index and the broader Euro Stoxx 600 rose considerably, as bookmakers nationwide shifted the odds dramatically favoring the Remain campaign. As a result, stocks on Wall Street enjoyed one of their strongest one-day rebounds in nearly four months, as the Dow Jones added 0.73%, the NASDAQ gained 0.77% and the S&P 500 jumped 0.58% as nine of 10 sectors closed in the green. Stocks in the Industrials, Energy and Consumer Goods industries led, while stocks in the Utilities industry lagged. Investors are now eyeing a testimony on monetary policy by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, due on Tuesday and Wednesday and the long awaited June 23 referendum that will decide whether the U.K. will remain in the E.U. or not.
Pivot: 2025
Support: 2025 1970 1970
Resistance: 2130 2190 2250
Scenario 1: long positions above 2025.00 with targets @ 2130.00 & 2190.00 in extension.
Scenario 2: below 2025.00 look for further downside with 1970.00 & 1950.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish. A bullish reversal candlestick took shape on Thursday.