In a day where trading volumes were subdued, as markets were closed for holidays in U.K., Germany and the U.S., the dollar remained high against most currencies, still supported by Friday's positive inflation data from the U.S. and by clear indications that the Fed may proceed to the long awaited interest rate hike before the end of the year. In Greece, Interior Minister Nikos Voutsis warned that the country would be unable to make a €305 million payment to the International Monetary Fund due on June 5 if a deal is not reached that will unlock further funds in exchange for the long awaited list of reforms. For this week, markets will be looking for further clues of improvement in the U.S economy ahead of announcements including durable goods orders, house prices, manufacturing, jobless claims and consumer confidence later in the week.
The euro fell to one-month lows against the stronger dollar on Monday, pressured by Friday's strong consumer prices, and as concerns over Greece continued to weigh on the single currency. The euro remained under heavy selling pressure with the possibility of a Greek default still weighing on prices.
On Sunday's Greece's Interior Minister Nikos Voutsis warned that the country cannot pay the IMF for what is due on June 5 if a deal is not reach that will unlock further funds for the country. For today, traders will be watching closely on data from the U.S., including durable goods orders, house prices, new home sales, manufacturing and consumer confidence data, due later in the day.
Pivot
1.1
Support
1.086
1.082
1.078
Resistance
1.1
1.106
1.115
Scenario 1: Short positions below 1.1 with targets @ 1.086 & 1.082 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 1.1 look for further upside with 1.106 & 1.115 as targets.
Comment: Technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.
Gold prices posted little change today, with investors watching closely on how the case of Greece will develop, and whether the country will fall short in upcoming payments owed to the IMF. A potential Greek default continues to dominate market sentiment and provides support to safe haven assets such as gold. For today, traders will be watching closely on data from the U.S., including durable goods orders, house prices, new home sales, manufacturing and consumer confidence data, due later in the day.
Pivot
1207.5
Support
1192
1187
1180
Resistance
1207.5
1215
1223
Scenario 1: Short positions below 1207.5 with targets @ 1192 & 1187 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 1207.5 look for further upside with 1215 & 1223 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1207.5 is resistance, likely decline to 1192.
OIL/USD
Crude oil prices posted a drop in subdued trading on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar, and as industry research group Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) on Friday, reported that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by only one last week. Oil traders are watching closely on the reduced number of oil rigs for further indications on supply. However, oil prices remain supported by strong demand signals from Japan and China as well as the upcoming summer driving season in the U.S. For today, markets will be focusing on the industrial inventory data by the American Petroleum Institute.
Pivot
59.05
Support
59.05
58.7
57.9
Resistance
60.25
60.5
60.9
Scenario 1: Long positions above 59.05 with targets @ 60.25 & 60.5 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 59.05 look for further downside with 58.7 & 57.9 as targets.
Comment: A support base at 59.05 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization.
MIB
Stocks in Italy fell by approximately 2% on Monday as losses in the Chemicals, Oil & Gas and Financials sectors drove the index in negative territory. The best performer of the day was Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena which posted remained flat with 0% change. The worst performers of the session were Finmeccanica which fell 4.46%, Unicredit (MILAN:CRDI) which declined by 3.18% and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) which was down by 3.06%. Market participants will be watching closely on how events in Greece unfold, as a potential default would have a significant impact on prices.
Pivot
23000
Support
23000
22650
21940
Resistance
23800
24100
24600
Scenario 1: Long positions above 23000 with targets @ 23800 & 24100 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 23000 look for further downside with 22650 & 21940 as targets.
Comment: The RSI has just landed on a support around 30% and is reversing up.