Friday the dollar has been boosted by expectations that the U.S. central bank could raise rates as soon as September, if the economy continues to improve as expected. The single European currency remained also supported as talks between Greece and its international creditors on a new bailout package were delayed until Monday. Talks had been expected to start on Friday, but were delayed by logistical issues, including security matters. A new agreement must be reached before August 20 when Greece must repay more than €3 billion to the European Central Bank. Today in the euro zone the IFO Institute is to report on German business climate, while the U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders. In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday's monetary policy announcement by the Fed, but developments in Greece and euro zone inflation data will also be closely watched.
The euro was little changed against the broadly stronger dollar on Friday, following the release of mixed U.S. economic reports, while talks on a new bailout package for Greece were delayed until today.
EUR/USD was at 1.0984 in late trade, unchanged for the day, but for the week, the pair was up 1.41%.
Data on Friday showed that sales of new homes in the U.S. fell to a seven-month low in June, but another report showed that manufacturing activity edged higher this month.
The mixed data came as investors were turning their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy announcement on Wednesday, amid ongoing speculation over the timing of an initial interest rate hike.
Pivot: 1.0965
Support: 1.0965; 1.092; 1.087
Resistance: 1.1035; 1.1085; 1.1125
Scenario 1: Long positions above 1.0965 with targets @ 1.1035 & 1.1085 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 1.0965 look for further downside with 1.092 & 1.087 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.
GOLD
Gold prices rose in early Asia on Monday, with investors seeing bargains after a series of sharp falls.
Last week gold sank to the lowest level in more than five years on Friday, as ongoing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at its September policy meeting weighed.
Expectations of higher borrowing rates going forward is considered bearish for gold, as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise.
In the week ahead, market players will focus on the outcome of the Federal Reserve's highly-anticipated policy meeting on Wednesday as well as the release of preliminary second quarter growth data on Thursday.
Meanwhile, investors will continue to monitor progress in Greece's €86 billion bailout negotiations. Athens is aiming for a deal by mid-August.
Pivot: 1086.5
Support: 1086.5; 1073; 1064
Resistance: 11.06; 1119; 1129.4
Scenario 1: Long positions above 1086.5 with targets @ 1106 & 1119 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 1086.5 look for further downside with 1073 & 1064 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
OIL
Crude oil prices dipped further in Asia on Monday as oversupply worries dominated the market as well as demand prospects from the U.S. as the Federal Reserve mulls an interest rate hike.
Last week, U.S. oil futures fell to the lowest level in almost four months on Friday, after data showed that rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. rose last week, underlining concerns over robust domestic production.
Baker Hughs shows that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. increased by 21 last week to 659, the most since May.
In the week ahead, market players will focus on the outcome of the Federal Reserve's highly-anticipated policy meeting on Wednesday as well as the release of preliminary second quarter growth data on Thursday.
Pivot: 49.1
Support: 47.5; 47; 46.4
Resistance: 49.1; 49.6; 50.6
Scenario 1: Short positions below 49.1 with targets @ 47.5 & 47 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 49.1 look for further upside with 49.6 & 50.6 as targets.
Comment: As long as 49.1 is resistance, likely decline to 47.5.
DOW JONES
U.S. equities markets fell broadly on Friday closing lower for a fourth consecutive session, as lagging performances from stocks in the Basic Materials, Health Care and Energy industries weighed on the major indices.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted mild losses to remain in negative territory for the year, while the NASDAQ Composite index and the S&P 500 Composite index each fell by more than 1% to extend prior losses on the week.
This week investors will keep an eye on the U.S. data on: durable goods orders, consumer confidence, pending home sales, second quarter growth, initial jobless claims. But the main focus will be on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve is to announce its latest monetary policy decision and publish its rate statement.
Pivot: 18350
Support: 17410; 17200; 17040
Resistance: 18350; 18650; 18900
Scenario 1: Short positions below 18350 with targets @ 17410 & 17200 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 18350 look for further upside with 18650 & 18900 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.
AMZN
Investor enthusiasm for Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) is pretty consistent: the stock tends to rise, even though the company isn't consistent about making profits.
On Thursday it posted second quarter profit of $92 million on sales of $23.19 billion, only its third quarterly profit since the first quarter of 2014. Amazon has reported an annual net profit in 10 of its 18 years as a public company, and only twice in the last four years. On Friday, Amazon shares closed at a record high of $535.50 and the company passed Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) in market value.
Amazon said that the online retailer will invest on everything from its cloud computing business to gadgets like the Kindle, without worrying about quarterly results.
Pivot: 414
Support: 414; 365; 341
Resistance: 497; 522; 549
Scenario 1: Long positions above 414 with targets @ 497 & 522 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 414 look for further downside with 365 & 341 as targets.
Comment: The immediate trend remains up and the momentum is strong.