The dollar ended last week lower against most major currencies for a second consecutive week after a new batch of weak economic indicators creates worries over the health of the U.S economy and the timing of a potential interest rate hike. The Commerce Department reported Friday that orders for durable goods, excluding aircraft, fell 0.5% in March, after a downwardly revised 2.2% drop in February. In Riga, where the euro group convened on Friday, the Greek prime ministre accepted intense criticism that he is waisting time in providing the required reforms. The first of two IMF payments are due on May 6 and the government still doesn't know if it has enough money to pay pensioners and state employees this week. In the week ahead investors will be looking to Wednesday's Fed statement for clues on the possible timing of a rate increase. Investors will also be focusing on Wednesday's preliminary reading on U.S. first quarter growth.
The euro gained ground against the dollar on Friday as weak U.S. data on durable goods orders excluding aircraft, fell 0.5% in March and added to worries over the outlook for the recovery, lowering expectations for a potential interest rate hike in June. The data came after recent weak reports on home sales, retail sales and industrial production, adding to signs of a slowdown in economic growth since the start of the year. The euro is also under pressure as concerns over the Greek debt negotiations continue. Euro area finance ministers said Friday that Greece must present a full economic reform plan by early May in order to access any further funding. In the week ahead investors will be looking to Wednesday's Fed statement for clues on the possible timing of a rate increase. Investors will also be focusing on Wednesday's preliminary reading on U.S. first quarter growth.
Pivot
1.078
Support
1.078
1.073
1.0655
Resistance
1.09
1.095
1.1035
Our preference: Long positions above 1.078 with targets @ 1.09 & 1.095 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.078 look for further downside with 1.073 & 1.0655 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed with bullish indications
Gold prices gained on Monday as investors considered last week's drop as excessive and as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting this week for clues on the timing of a potential rate hike. The metal was also supported by increased uncertainty over the situation in Greece as the government failed to present a list of reforms that will enable access to further funding. Market players this week will shift their attention to Wednesdays FOMC meeting for clues on the timing of a potential rate hike and will also be looking ahead to data on first quarter U.S. growth figures for further indications on the strength of the economy.
Pivot
1198
Support
1168
1060
1153
Resistance
1198
1205
1209
Our preference: Short positions below 1198 with targets @ 1168 & 1160 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1198 look for further upside with 1205 & 1209 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1198 is resistance, likely decline to 1168.
OIL/USD
Crude oil prices are trading on positive on Monday, with the focus shifted to geopolitical tensions in Yemen and the impact on supply disruptions. Saudi Arabia resumed its air strike campaign against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen on Friday, renewing concerns over the security of Middle East oil shipments. In addition, U.S. demand is also under question as inventories reports appear mixed. The market is expected to react next to Tuesday's inventory report by the American Petroleum Institute and Wednesday's government report by the EIA.
Pivot
58
Support
56.5
55.75
54.6
Resistance
58
58.8
59.6
Our preference: Short positions below 58 with targets @ 56.5 & 55.75 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 58 look for further upside with 58.8 & 59.6 as targets.
Comment: As long as 58 is resistance, likely decline to 56.5.
DOW JONES
U.S. stocks were higher after the close on Friday, as gains in the Consumer Services, Technology and Utilities sectors led shares higher. U.S stocks were also supported by a rise in European equities, especially in Germany, Italy and Spain. At the close in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose with the best performers being Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) which rose 10.45% meanwhile McDonald`s Corporation added 1.79% and EI du Pont de Nemours and Company (NYSE:DD) was up 1.03%. In the week ahead investors will be looking to Wednesday's Fed statement for clues on the possible timing of a rate increase while Wall Street awaits earnings from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Twitter (NYSE:TWTR), Ford, CVS Health (NYSE:CVS), United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS), MasterCard, Visa and more.
Pivot
17585
Support
17585
17040
16330
Resistance
18290
18900
19200
Scenario 1: Long positions above 17585 with targets @ 18290 & 18900 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 17585 look for further downside with 17040 & 16330 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is supported by a bullish trend line.
APPLE
More earnings from the tech sector are on the way this week beginning Monday with Apple, just days after making its highly-anticipated Watch available. Usually the attention in Apples earnings is on iPhone sales, particularly in China. Apple's iPhone results within China are believed to represent the most significant factor that will take the company in upside for the March quarter. Investors will also be listening for any mention about sales or pre-orders of the new Apple Watch, which marks the first entirely new product category for the company under CEO Tim Cook.
Pivot
128
Support
128
125.8
123.1
Resistance
131.4
132.9
133.6
Scenario 1: Long positions above 128 with targets @ 131.4 & 132.9 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 128 look for further downside with 125.8 & 123.1 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.