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Here's The Play When The Rally Comes

Published 10/07/2013, 11:51 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
Short the living heck out of it. Honestly.

Just Waiting To Buy
Because what, exactly, will it mean when the government fully reopens for business? Well, what it’ll mean for the markets is that the one huge uncertainty before them disappears and everyone already has their index fingers poised over the Buy button for that almost-assured event.

But this is going to be a bigger shorting opportunity that the September 18/19 “we’re not gonna taper, fellas!” rally. Because all it really means is that the least productive, most overprotected “workers” in our society – - that is, federal employees – - go back to slumming through their days. These millions of people who couldn’t hack it in private enterprise will stick their massive backsides onto their padded chairs and await their regular direct deposits. Nothing more.

It won’t do anything for earnings, or consumer confidence, or the macro health of the economy. Indeed, the only positive that comes out of it is that the tiny amount of “work” that these millions do get done will actually get done, because right now, they’ve been promised to be paid for being furloughed (which, umm, kind of makes the entire furloush moot, doesn’t it?).

Opportunity Of The Year
So I’m holding on to my gut, awaiting for this inevitable rally. It’s going to be very difficult, but I seriously think it’s going to be the shorting opportunity of the year. Because there won’t be any more “NOT” news upon which to rally. The celebration will be over in fewer than 24 hours.

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