Gold for Tuesday, September 30, 2014
For more than a week now gold has thoroughly enjoyed solid support at $1215 after falling strongly a couple of weeks ago from $1240 to just below $1215. The next obvious level of potential support remains at $1200 which is a long term key level. If gold was to fail at this level, then it is likely the flood gates will open and the shine will have definitely worn off. Several weeks ago gold was enjoying a resurgence as it moved strongly higher off the support level at $1275, however it then ran into resistance at $1290. In the week prior, gold had been falling lower back towards the medium term support level at $1290 however to finish out last week it fell sharply down to the previous key level at $1275. Over the last month or so the $1290 level has shown some signs of support and held gold up until its recent sharp decline. During the second half of June, gold steadily moved higher but showed numerous incidents of indecision with its multiple doji candlestick patterns on the daily chart. This happened around $1320 and $1330.
The OANDA long position ratio for gold has steadied around 70% as gold finds solid support around $1215. At the beginning of June, gold did very well to repair some damage and return to the key $1275 level, then it has continued the momentum pushing a higher to its recent four month high. After moving so little for an extended period, gold dropped sharply back in May from above the well established support level at $1275 as it completely shattered this level falling to a four month low around $1240. It remained around support at $1240 for several days before its strong rally higher. It pushed down towards $1280 before sling shotting back and also had an excursion above $1300 for a short period before moving quickly back to the $1293 area again. Over the last few weeks gold has eased back from around $1315 to establish its recent narrow trading range below $1295 before its recent slump.
Way back since March, the $1275 level has established itself as a level of support and on several occasions has propped up the price of gold after reasonable falls. Throughout the second half of March gold fell heavily from resistance around $1400 back down to a several week low near support at $1275. Both these levels remain relevant as $1275 continues to offer support and the $1400 level is likely to play a role again should gold move up higher. Through the first couple of months of this year, gold moved very well from a longer term support level around $1200 up towards a six month higher near $1400 before returning to its present trading levels closer to $1300.
Gold settled modestly higher on Monday, but the metal’s gains were capped as the dollar see-sawed between negative an positive territory. U.S. gold futures finished the session $3.40 higher at $1,219.80 an ounce. Spot gold was last down 0.2 percent to $1,217 an ounce. Cash prices had reached a nine-month low of $1,206.85 on Thursday, before recovering slightly. The dollar was unchanged against a basket of major currencies and still close to a four-year peak hit earlier in the day as the market looked ahead to a series of important economic data, culminating in the release on Friday of U.S. September non-farm payrolls. The bigger impact on gold prices could still come from U.S. data as market players seek to gauge the strength of the economy and its impact on Federal Reserve policy. Strong economic data could prompt the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates faster and sooner than expected, which could boost the dollar and hurt non-interest-bearing bullion.
Gold September 30 at 00:40 GMT 1216.1 H: 1223.3 L: 1214.9
Gold Technical
S3S2S1R1R2R312151200—12401290—
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, Gold is remaining quite steady right above the support level at $1215 after finishing last week falling sharply back down towards the support at $1215. Current range: trading right around $1216.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 1215 and 1200.
• Above: 1240 and 1290.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for gold among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for gold has steadied around 70% as gold finds solid support around $1215. The trader sentiment is strongly in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 23:30 (Mon) AU AIG Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
- 23:50 (Mon) JP Tankan (Q3)
- 00:00 NZ NBNZ Business Confidence (Sep)
- 01:30 AU Private Sector Credit (Aug)
- 03:00 NZ Monetary Aggregates M3 (Aug)
- 05:00 JP Construction orders (Aug)
- 05:00 JP Housing starts (Aug)
- 08:30 UK Current Account (Q2)
- 08:30 UK GDP (3rd Est.) (Q2)
- 08:30 UK Index of Services (Jul)
- 09:00 EU Flash HICP – Core (Sep)
- 09:00 EU HICP
- 09:00 EU Unemployment (Aug)
- 12:30 CA GDP (Jul)
- 12:30 CA Industrial product price index (Aug)
- 12:30 CA Raw Materials Price Index (Aug)
- 13:00 US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price (Jul)
- 13:45 US Chicago PMI (Sep)
- 14:00 US Consumer Confidence (Sep)