Gold – Tuesday, June 30th, 2015
Throughout all of last week, gold fell sharply from above the key $1200 level back to below $1170 and a two week low. It has recently surged higher to back above the key $1180 level, and has recently eased back to this level, where it is presently trading. In the few days prior, gold had been easing back to below the key $1200 level after recently surging higher to a three week high above $1205. The $1200 level remains significant, and is continuing to place selling pressure on gold. Prior to the surge and in the last couple of weeks, gold has been content to trade around the key $1180 level. A few weeks ago, it rallied well to move from a two month low near $1160 back up to above $1190 again, before easing back to the $1180 level.
The key $1180 level has consistently provided solid support and has held it up now for a couple of months, with the recent exception. About a month ago, gold fell sharply back through the key $1200 level and spent the remainder of that week consolidating in a narrow range around $1190. The $1200 level has been a significant level throughout most of this year, and remains a key level presently, offering reasonable resistance to higher prices, whilst lower the $1180 level continues to be significant. Throughout the last month or so, the $1180 level has provided some support and has been called upon recently.
Earlier in May, it was able to make a run through the $1200 level to reach a three month high above $1230; however, gold was quickly sold off and returned back to the $1200 level, where it enjoyed some support for several days. For around two months, through April, gold traded in a range between $1180 and around $1220, and had very few excursions outside these limits. Gold is currently pinned between resistance at $1200 and support at $1180, and it is surprising to see it trade in such a narrow range for several days. It seems it is waiting patiently for external factors to determine which level will be severely tested next.
(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)
Gold June 30 at 00:25 GMT 1179.9 H: 1188.4 L: 1173.8
Gold Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1150 | — | — | 1200 | 1240 | — |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, gold is trading right around the key $1180 level, after recently rallying higher to return to this level. Current range: trading right around $1180.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 1150.
• Above: 1200 and 1240.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for gold among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for gold has surged back up above 80%, as gold has fallen sharply back to near the key $1180 level. The trader sentiment is strongly in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 23:30 (Mon) AU AIG Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
- 23:50 (Mon) JP Tankan (Q2)
- 01:00 NZ NBNZ Business Confidence (Jun)
- 01:30 AU Private Sector Credit (May)
- 05:00 JP Construction orders (May)
- 05:00 JP Housing starts (May)
- 08:30 UK Current Account (Q1)
- 08:30 UK GDP (3rd Est.) (Q1)
- 08:30 UK Index of Services (Apr)
- 09:00 EU Flash HICP (Jun)
- 09:00 EU Unemployment (May)
- 12:30 CA GDP (Apr)
- 13:00 US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price (Apr)
- 13:45 US Chicago PMI (Jun)
- 14:00 US Consumer Confidence (Jun)