Gold for Monday, March 30, 2015
For the best part of the last couple of weeks gold has moved strongly off the support at $1150 up to a three week high right around $1220 level, before easing lower back towards the key $1200 level to finish out last week. It has started this week easing lower a little back below $1200 where it is presently consolidating and trading around. It still has its eyes firmly on the key $1200 level and it will be interesting to see whether it now receives some support from this level or whether the resistance stands firm. Prior to the recent move, gold remained quite steady enjoying strong support from the $1150 level whilst some eyes would have been looking lower. The next obvious technical support level lower is around $1130, and if it was to move through this level, then it would be trading at multi-year lows and looking very bearish. When gold broke through the rock solid support level at $1200 recently, it opened itself up to some potential downside which was played out a couple of weeks ago.
Throughout the second half of February gold enjoyed rock solid support from the key $1200 level which held it up on numerous occasions. For about a month gold drifted steadily lower down to a one month low near the key $1200 level before finding the solid support at this key level. At the beginning of December gold eased lower away from the resistance level at $1240 yet again back down to below $1200. During the second half of November gold made repeated runs at the resistance level at $1200 failing every time, before finally breaking through strongly. Throughout the first half of November Gold enjoyed a strong resurgence back to the key $1200 level where it has met stiff resistance up until recently.
Throughout the second half of October gold fell very strongly and resumed the medium term down trend falling from above $1250 back down through the key $1240 level, down below $1200 to a multi year low near $1130. It spent a few days consolidating around $1160 after the strong fall which has allowed it to rally higher in the last couple of weeks. Earlier in October Gold ran into the previous key level at $1240, however it also managed to surge higher to a five week high at $1255. In late August Gold enjoyed a resurgence as it moved strongly higher off the support level at $1275, however it then ran into resistance at $1290. In the week prior, Gold had been falling lower back towards the medium term support level at $1290 however to finish out last week it fell sharply down to the previous key level at $1275.
Gold fell on Friday, snapping a seven-day rally as the dollar steadied, but the metal still looked set to post its second straight weekly gain. Investors eyed Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech just before the stock market close on Friday, where she said an interest rate increase “may be warranted later this year.” At separate events on Thursday, the presidents of the St. Louis Fed and Atlanta Fed said an adjustment away from ultra-loose monetary policy might be needed in light of the U.S. economy’s improvement since the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Spot gold eased 0.5 percent to $1,198 an ounce. The metal jumped on Thursday to $1,219.40—its highest since March 2—in a knee-jerk reaction to the attacks in Yemen. It later pared gains to close near $1,200. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled $5 lower at $1,199.80 an ounce. Saudi Arabia and its allies launched air strikes in Yemen on Wednesday, rattling wider markets and supporting gold, usually seen as an insurance against risk. Geopolitics has never been something that could set a trend in gold prices, it only causes a short-term deviation from the existing trend,” Julius Baer head of commodity research Norbert Ruecker said.
(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)
Gold March 29 at 23:30 GMT 1197.7 H: 1199.9 L: 1196.5
Gold Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1150 | — | — | 1200 | 1240 | 1300 |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Monday, Gold is trading in a narrow range right below the key $1200 level ater steadily moving higher over the last week or so. Current range: trading right below $1200.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 1150.
• Above: 1200, 1240 and 1300.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for Gold among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for Gold has moved back towards 65% as it eased lower below the key $1200 level. The trader sentiment is in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 07:00 UK Nationwide House Prices (30th-2nd) (Mar)
- 08:30 UK BoE – Mortgage Approvals (Feb)
- 08:30 UK BoE – Net Consumer Credit (Feb)
- 08:30 UK BoE – Secured Lending (Feb)
- 08:30 UK M4 Money Supply (Feb)
- 09:00 EU Business Climate Index (Mar)
- 09:00 EU Consumer Sentiment (Mar)
- 09:00 EU Economic Sentiment (Mar)
- 09:00 EU Industrial Sentiment (Mar)
- 12:30 CA Industrial product price index (Feb)
- 12:30 CA Raw Materials Price Index (Feb)
- 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index (Feb)
- 12:30 US Personal income & spending (Feb)
- 14:00 US Pending Home Sales (Feb)