Metals and miners could be setting up an alternate scenario for the coming weeks. The way prices closed Friday concerns me. I've been looking at different possibilities and one scenario stands out.
I never liked the look of the May "6-month lows". They were way too shallow, and the weekly charts closed just once beneath their respective 10-week EMA's. That didn't make sense to me, and I questioned it severely. However, prices rallied and everything made new highs, so I left it alone.
Well, metals and miners are misbehaving somewhat and that forces me to reexamine the cycle count. This is what I came up with. It appears the May lows are not the "6-month lows" as previously believed. Meaning this is could be a very extended intermediate cycle, and prices are just now topping. If this analysis is correct, prices should bottom in September around the time of the next Fed meeting. Remember, this is still just a theory, it is yet to be confirmed (more below).
-US DOLLAR - The dollar settled above the 10-day EMA. It's looking like the dollar cycle bottomed, and a new cycle higher has begun. If gold and silver are going to remain healthy, the dollar needs to rollover and then drop below 94.94. 
-GOLD DAILY - Gold prices raised a red flag when they closed below the 10-day EMA just 11-days into this cycle. Also, prices never exceeded the previous high of $1,377.50. These circumstances are forcing us to look at alternate scenarios. A break of the cycle low at $1,310 will confirm an alternative scenario is playing out.
-GOLD ALTERNATE SCENARIO - This potential scenario assumes the $1,201.50 low in May was not the actual 6-month low. That would imply this entire move has been an extremely extended 6-month cycle and that prices will form the "real" 6-month low in about 3-6 weeks. If gold breaks below $1,310 the alternate scenario is playing out.
The low in May didn't close beneath the 10-week EMA but one time, thus supporting the possibility of a very extended cycle. Extended cycles are rare, but they do occur. If gold continues to drop, I would expect the bottom to arrive around the September Fed meeting.
-SILVER DAILY- Silver is also setting up for the alternate scenario. A break of the $19.27 low will lead to a drop to around the 200-day MA in September.
Stay tuned for updates as the potential setup is confirmed.