- LONG TERM TREND BEARISH
- INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND BEARISH
- SHORT TERM TREND BEARISH
- VERY SHORT TERM TREND NEUTRAL/BEARISH
After finding support at 1052, just above our long-held target for gold of 1000-1050, gold rallied weakly this week, finding resistance just $22 higher at 1074. Today, gold has sold off sharply following a strong ADP employment number that suggests the path is now clear for a December rate hike in the US and is now trading at 1055, just above the support zone around 1050.
A break below 1050 would suggest a quick trip to 1000, however a rebound in the gold price is well overdue after a sustained sell off in gold and the longer gold can hold above 1050, the more likely this becomes.
A gold rally would have an initial target of 1100 and a potential extension toward 1120, however the down trend remains firmly in place and lower prices before the year end seem likely, particularly as equities are likely to benefit more than commodities from seasonal factors this year.
Oil remains very weak near $40 a barrel, with geopolitical issues failing to lend support so far and a glut of supply pressuring the price further.
Support can be found at 1055, 1052, 1045, 1000, 950, 867 and 806. The recent break of 1130 is very bearish for gold and suggest a return to 1000-1050 in the first instance.
Resistance can be found at 1074, 1085, 1095, 1098-1100, 1104, 1110, 1114, 1122, 1130, 1143, 1150, 1153-1156, 1170-1172, 1184, and 1191. Gold has recently broken below the 2014 lows, though is trying to find a base around 1050.