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Gold ETF Quarterly Update

ByScott's Investments
Published 02/28/2013, 02:02 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
AlphaClone

posted a fourth quarter 2012 summary of institutional activity in Gold (GLD). Quarter over quarter activity shows an overall decrease in institutional holdings of GLD:
GLD
However, as Alphaclone notes there are some very prominent funds with positions in GLD:
GLD 2
For those interested in potential applications of institutional holdings see my tests and post from 2010 here.

GLD remains below its 200 day moving average and there is a clear downward sloping channel, as shown by the Finviz chart below, but GLD did find a bid last week at $152:
GLD 3
From a relative strength perspective, GLD is trailing two other major asset classes, US Equities and US Bonds (both long-term Treasuries and Aggregate Bonds). I used ETF Replay to test a relative strength system which went long the one ETF with the highest 6 month relative strength among GLD, SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), iShares Barclays 20+ Treasury (TLT) and iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond (AGG), rebalanced monthly.

GLD is currently ranked 4th among the 4 ETFs based on 6 month relative strength (TLT is a close third):
Total Return
For a contrarian perspective, David Banister of The Market Trend Forecast predicted a cyclical low in Gold for February 2013 in this article, although gold did surpass his low target price for February. A chart from the article below:
5 Year Gold
Disclaimer: Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author is not a financial adviser. Stock Loon LLC, Scott's Investments and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

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