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German IFO OK, But EUR/USD Capped On Fears About China‏

By ForexJun 24, 2013 10:26AM GMT Add a Comment
 
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Market Drivers for June 24, 2013
  • Worries about liquidity in China send Asian stocks lower, AUD/USD tests 9150
  • IFO basically in line creating minor selloff in EUR/USD
  • Nikkei -1.28%
  • Europe - 1.12%
  • Oil $93/bbl
  • Gold $1280/oz.
Europe and Asia

EUR: German IFO - Business Climate 105.9 vs. 105.9
EUR: German IFO - Current Assessment 109.4 vs. 109.6
EUR: German IFO - Expectations 102.5 vs. 102

North America

USD: Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Asian markets were destroyed on the first trading day of the week with the Shanghai index particularly hard hit as it dropped by -5.3% as investors continue to worry that Chinese policy makers will maintain their hawkish bias on monetary policy, tightening credit supply further. Short term interbank lending rates in China have surged as the government continues to appear nonplussed by the liquidity tightening.

The rise in risk aversion during the Asian session took its toll on AUD/USD once again with the pair making fresh lows as it tested the .9150 barrier. The one way trade in the Aussie continues with the shorts now eyeing the psychologically key .9000 level - and if the selloff in Chinese assets continues as theweek proceeds - that target may be reached within the next several days.

The economic slowdown in China is now acting as the key counterpoint to the improvement in US economic activity and the imbalance in growth between the world's two biggest economies is likely to become the key market theme as the summer proceeds. It is simply impossible to imagine sustained global growth with the US acting as the solo locomotive for demand. Therefore, this divergence in performance between the world's biggest economies is likely to cause more panic among investors, accelerating risk aversion flows unless some improvement is seen.

The goldilocks scenario for global growth would entail a soft landing in China, a quickening recovery in Europe and an acceleration of activity in the US. But such a bullish outcome is clearly being doubted by the market and if the US begins to falter as the summer proceeds, risk assets will come under enormous pressure as investors pare back their bets.

The threat of a China slowdown was even evident in the EUR/USD trade today. The IFO sentiment survey was generally in-line with expectations, with the forward component even beating consensus by a bit. But EUR/USD failed to rally off the news, as investors remain concerned about German exports to China. With exports the key driver of growth in the economy, market participants are greatly concerned that a German recovery could sputter badly if demand from China begins to collapse. The pair made a half-hearted attempt to rally through 1.3125, but has met selling at those levels throughout the morning's European session.

In North America today the calendar is barren and equity markets may see some selling pressure on the open as traders digest the overnight activity in Asia. The EUR/USD remains under pressure and any further selloff could create a test of the 1.3050 level as the day proceeds. However, if there is little follow through to the selloff in Shanghai, the pair could stabilize and try to stage a short covering rally towards 1.3150 as consolidation continues.
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