BIAS: We should see a correction higher to 1.6280-1.6307 before lower again
Resistance: 1.6226 1.6250 1.6280-85 1.6305
Support: 1.6180 1.6167 1.6149 1.6128
MAIN ANALYSIS: I could describe Friday's price action but it would be old news. The gap lower on open today was more than aggressive but interestingly stalled at 1.6167 which is a perfect Wave -iii- projection target. This implies that we're going to fill the entire gap to the 1.6280-85 area minimum - max 1.6300-05. From there we should see a final decline - in 3-waves - back to 1.6167-00 and after a correction down to around 1.6149 approx. We need to confirm with daily, 4-hour and hourly momentum that all will show bullish divergences.
COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only directly back above 1.6310, 1.6334 and 1.6360-65 would bring this back higher directly. Resistance is then at 1.6486 - 1.6517.
MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
5th September: Well, the Wave [a] did stall somewhere close to the 38.2% retracement in daily Wave -iv- at 1.6392 - in fact just 1 point above. However, the correction was just 18.8%. Therefore we should be seeing losses (with bearish momentum in both hourly and 4-hour charts) and thus we should reach the mid 1.62's at a minimum and I suspect the 1.62 area - max 1.6146. From here we should see a firm recovery.
Resistance: 1.6226 1.6250 1.6280-85 1.6305
Support: 1.6180 1.6167 1.6149 1.6128
MAIN ANALYSIS: I could describe Friday's price action but it would be old news. The gap lower on open today was more than aggressive but interestingly stalled at 1.6167 which is a perfect Wave -iii- projection target. This implies that we're going to fill the entire gap to the 1.6280-85 area minimum - max 1.6300-05. From there we should see a final decline - in 3-waves - back to 1.6167-00 and after a correction down to around 1.6149 approx. We need to confirm with daily, 4-hour and hourly momentum that all will show bullish divergences.
COUNTER ANALYSIS: Only directly back above 1.6310, 1.6334 and 1.6360-65 would bring this back higher directly. Resistance is then at 1.6486 - 1.6517.
MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
5th September: Well, the Wave [a] did stall somewhere close to the 38.2% retracement in daily Wave -iv- at 1.6392 - in fact just 1 point above. However, the correction was just 18.8%. Therefore we should be seeing losses (with bearish momentum in both hourly and 4-hour charts) and thus we should reach the mid 1.62's at a minimum and I suspect the 1.62 area - max 1.6146. From here we should see a firm recovery.