It has been a confusing 24 hours for the currency markets after yesterday’s tremendous reversal in EURUSD on the heels of a rally has yielded to yet another reversal (at least so far) today. European Central Bank president Mario Draghi could not sustain a sell-off despite his comments.
The JPY crosses have made a significant move lower, but risk appetite is making a comeback as I am writing this and the market is extremely edgy and seems capable of moving either way depending on what the US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov have to say at their press briefings, which may hit even before this is published.
FX Board (Beta) for Today
Note the GBPUSD medium-term trend turning medium term negative (still need that 1.6570 trigger) and the USDJPY is negative on both time frames now as well. Also note the EURSEK and EURNOK ST trends crossing into positive territory — follow-through confirmation is needed on Monday there.
FX Board (Beta) Trend Heat picture
The JPY is making a bold statement again and silver is putting on a bit of a show as well, as the Scandies were the weakest currencies across the board today in relative strength.
FX Board (Beta) Overall Trend picture
Note the multiple flips lower in JPY crosses and GBPCAD turning short term negative after an amazing 93 days in a medium-term positive trend, which will end very soon if the pair trades lower.
Charts
A limited charts section today as the levels may close significantly into today’s close after a nervous couple of weeks of trading. Keep an eye on AUDUSD and the 0.9000 and 0.9100 levels coming into Monday’s session, and keep an eye on the 1.6570 level in GBPUSD as a possible downside trigger. As for EURUSD, 1.3850 is now the downside trigger after yesterday’s rally threw the value of yesterday’s bearish candlestick out the window as we have yet to see follow-through.
For USDJPY coverage, please see the video/chart and commentary I did from earlier today:
Chart: EURSEK
The momentum for the bears has left the scene, and the pair may focus on 8.90 plus next week, with a snap-back through 8.95 needed to begin arguments of a return above 9.00.
Chart: EURNOK
An interesting line in the sand here in the 8.30/32 zone as the downside has lost momentum again. it could look higher now, but will likely need a helping hand from weak oil prices and even more so, weak risk appetite, to realise another rally toward 8.50.
Chart: XAGUSD (spot silver)
The action in silver is interesting today as the metal is pulling strongly higher and is making a bolder upside argument now. Note that we can argue that there is an upside down head-and-shoulders formation in place, with the neckline coming in around 22.00.
