Further Dollar Losses To Be Expected

Corrections were seen yesterday, and by and large may well be over. The EUR/USD stalled 2 points above my support and the USD/CHF 5 points above target. I pointed out the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds yesterday, and that the dollar had broken bearishly through. Well, the corrections retested those Clouds yesterday. What did go wrong was the GBP/USD, but in retrospect I’m quite satisfied as the next projection (if the correction had been shallower) would have been a squeeze but this should now achieve that comfortably from the point of view of projections from multiple wave degrees.

So, we should be expecting further dollar losses. I can see certain barriers on the way that have the potential to make the development a rather choppy and slow one. These I dislike intensely due to the greater risk of misjudgement through excessive noise. However, the projection areas are quite solid with the expectations I have had for the past 10 days or so still very much in line with targets.

The Aussie was another that frustrated with another minor new low, deepening the hourly bullish divergence but now has the sharply declining 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud sitting on top of price. It suggests some limited ranges as we start the day as normally the Clouds have to flatten out before penetration can be achieved. It may allow minor new lows so take care.

The JPY pairs; with the EUR/JPY reaching key resistance levels and the USD/JPY seeing a mini-minor correction (where it should) we do seem to be in the terminal stages of this rally. Yes, there is potential for further gains, but I am rather concerned over the cross that is beginning to show signs of frailty, and thus note that the USD/JPY projections may well be truncated (but for classic Elliotticians not in the manner of a failed fifth as they do not exist). More likely the risk is for a shorter than normal final projection. Take care with these two.

No great killer moves today anywhere, and more of a workmanlike day.