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Friday's FX: Decision Or Indecision?

ByIan Copsey
Published 06/20/2014, 12:27 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

The Dollar continued to see losses overall, but also a relatively deep correction. The basic bearish development has been positive and this should continue. The question is whether the market will complete the follow-through or take a breather. The reasoning for the possible consolidation is the balance I see across the Europeans and also between USD/JPY and EUR/USD when viewed in EUR/JPY. There is a certain risk of make-or-break in the cross in the very short term and I’d suggest watching this to get an idea of the risks in the underlying pairs.

I’ll also add to the above, another possible reasoning in terms of follow-through or consolidation, that GBP/USD is very close to quite a crucial projection target. If it begins to push too much higher, above this target, it’s going to push the fractals towards even higher projections. There is a very strong weekly bearish divergence forming and matched (to a certain degree) in the daily chart. What is currently missing are the lower degree bearish divergences. Thus, quite what this pair does over the Asian session will be important in terms of momentum.

The Aussie held below 0.9437… this should now resume losses…

USD/JPY surprised rather in the same way as AUD/USD had done on Wednesday. I am treating this with caution but still find it difficult to consider a bearish outcome. This will still need some coaxing and confirmation to take us back on the bullish route. However, with the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud hovering just above we may well still see some minor corrective lows. A degree of patience and attention is required.

Otherwise the basic view is Dollar bearish in the Europeans.

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