Notes/Observations
Greece extends debt buy-back program until Tuesday to achieve the €30B target
PM Monti: To resign from PM post after 2013 budget law is passed
Japan back in a technical recession
China data mixed with better Industrial Production and Retail Sales data while Trade Balance lower than expected with weaker components
Russia hikes its deposit rate by 25bps while keeping other rates unchanged
France and Italy Industrial Production data weaker than expected
EU leaders receive Nobel Peace prize today; Makes one wonder why Stalin didn't receive one for maintaining peace in Eastern Europe
Canada to approve C$15B CNOOC purchase of Nexen and C$5.2B Petronas bid for Progress Energy
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) left its Refinancing Rate and Overnight Auction-Based Repo unchanged at 8.25% and 5.50% respectively; Raised the Overnight Deposit Rate by 25bps to 4.50% (not expected)
(RU) Russia Nov Light Vehicle & Car Sales Y/Y: 0% (flat) v 5%e
(DE) Germany Oct Current Account: €13.6B v €13.5Be; Trade Balance: €15.8B v €15.5Be; Exports M/M: 0.3% v -0.3%e; Imports M/M: 2.5% v +0.4%e
(FI) Finland Oct Industrial Production M/M: +0.4% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: % v -1.7% prior
(FR) Bank of France Nov Business Sentiment: 91 v 92e
(FR) France Oct Industrial Production M/M: -0.7% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -3.6% v -2.0%e
(FR) France Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -4.0% v -2.3%e
(DK) Denmark Oct Current Account (DKK): 9.4B v 9.0B prior; Trade Balance Ex-Shipping: 6.6B v 5.9B prior
(DK) Denmark Nov CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.3 v 2.3% prior
(DK) Denmark Nov CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3% prior
(CZ) Czech Nov Unemployment Rate: 8.7% v 8.6%e
(CZ) Czech Oct Industrial Output Y/Y: 4.1% v 3.5%e; Construction Output Y/Y: 4.1% v -6.8% prior
(CZ) Czech Nov CPI M/M: -0.2% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 3.0%e
(AT) Austria Final Q3 WIFO GDP: +0.1% v -0.1% prelim
(TR) Turkey Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.5%e; GDP wda Y/Y: 1.9% v 3.4% prior
(TR) Turkey Oct Industrial Production WDA M/M: -2.6 v 4.8% prior; Y/Y: -0.9% v 3.0%e; Industrial Production NSA Y/Y: -5.7% v -2.5%e
(EU) ECB: €562M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €585M prior; €235.3B parked in deposit facility vs. €230.0B prior
(SE) Sweden Oct Industrial Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -4.4%e v -5.2%e
(SE) Sweden Oct Industrial Orders M/M: 1.6% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: -2.1% v -5.8% prior
(IT) Italy Oct Industrial Production M/M: -1.1% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.3%e% v -10.5% prior; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: -6.2% v -4.3%e
(NO) Norway Nov CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.3%e
(NO) Norway Nov CPI Underlying M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.1% prior
(NO) Norway Nov Producer Prices M/M: -0.4% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.0% v 1.7% prior
(EU) Euro Zone Dec Sentix Investor Confidence: -16.8 v -16.9e
(IT) Bank of Italy (BOT) Oct Private Loans -0.1% y/y; Deposits +4.7% y/y; Household lending turned negative in month
(IT) Italy Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.4% v -2.4%e
(GR) Greece Oct Industrial Production Y/Y: +2.0% v -7.0% prior
(GR) Greece Nov Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.6% prior; EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.9% prior
Fixed Income
(SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (ARDAL) sold €76.3M in 4.35% Oct 2025 bond; Avg Yield: 3.3635% v 3.5453% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.34x v 1.30x prior
(NO) Norway sold NOK4.0B in May 3.75% 2021 bonds; Avg Yield 1.92% v 1.48% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.22x v 2.93x prior
(NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total €2.15B vs. €2.0-4.0B indicated range in 3-month and 6-month Bills
Sold €1.08B vs. €2.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.041% v -0.034% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.60x v 3.28x prior
Sold €1.07B vs. €2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.040% v -0.016% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.40x v 3.1x prior
Equities
Indices: FTSE MIB -3.4% at 15,161, FTSE 100 -0.30% at 5,895, CAC-40 -0.70% at 3,580, IBEX-35 -2% at 7,691, SMI -0.30% at 6,905, S&P 500 Futures -0.30% at 1,412
European equity markets are broadly lower, as political concerns in Italy have driven the FTSE MIB lower by over 3.4%. The news related to the planned resignation of Italy's PM Monti, has come amid mixed data out of China and confirmation out of Greece of the plan to extend the government debt exchange. Italian banks have led the declines in the banking sector with losses of more than 6%.Miners are mostly lower, despite the gains being seen for commodity prices.
Events of interest for the week include Germany's Dec ZEW Survey (Tuesday), US FOMC decision (Wed Dec 12th), Italian and Spanish debt auctions (Wed and Thursday), EU finance minsters' meetings (Wed and Thursday) and German Dec advance PMI data (Friday).
Italy movers [Banks lower by over 6% (political concerns)]
UK movers [Rolls-Royce -1% (concerns related to bribery probe); UK Coal +22% (completed restructuring agreement]
Germany movers [Air Berlin -1.5% (speculation related to further cost cuts), RWE -1.4% (broker downgrade), HannoverRe, MunichRe lower by approx. 1% (AIG sees over $1B in Sandy-related losses); Curanum +13% (received bid from Korian), Talanx +1.5% (added to MDAX)]
France movers [BNP, Credit Agricole, SocGen lower by over 2% (broad banking sector weakness); STMicroelectronics +2% (strategy update)
Dutch movers [Imtech -6% (forgery allegations)]