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Fragile China?

Published 09/28/2014, 12:34 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

After the run-up that China's Shanghai Index has had since July of this year, this index may be on the verge of either a sizable decline or a somewhat volatile, and possibly lengthy, consolidation shortly.

The following 3-Year Daily chart shows SSEC to be at a major resistance level, and the RSI and MACD indicators are already in decline and do not support a further advance in SSEC.

SSEC Daily

The following two 3-Year Daily charts show the relationship of SSEC with SPX. The first shows the SPX below, while the second shows a ratio of the two indices.

The second is of most interest to me, since price on this ratio is also at a major resistance level. Furthermore, the RSI and MACD indicators are also in decline and do not support a further advance in SSEC.

SSEC and SPX Daily SSEC vs SPX Daily

The following two 3-Year Daily charts show the relationship of SSEC with Copper. The first shows Copper below, while the second shows a ratio of the two indices.

As shown on the first chart, the price action of the SSEC and Copper are normally (roughly) in sync; however, they have been at variance since July. The second chart shows that this ratio popped above a resistance level in September, but the RSI and MACD indicators are in decline and do not support a further advance in SSEC.

SSEC and Copper Daily SSEC vs Copper Daily

So, China's Shanghai Index, in relation to either continued strength or upcoming weakness against the SPX and Copper, is worth watching closely over the coming days/weeks for any China buffs.

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