The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large trader and speculators sharply raised their bullish bets in favor of the US dollar for a third straight week and to the highest total contracts level since March. Euro bets, meanwhile, continued to decline last week and fell to the lowest level since August 2012.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had a total US dollar position of +129,190 contracts as of Tuesday August 5th, according to the latest currency data from the CFTC. This was a weekly change of +115,893 contracts from the total position of +13,297 contracts that was registered on July 29th. The total US dollar contracts calculation is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.
The jump in the US dollar position last week marked the highest overall level since March 4th when bullish positions equaled +134,006 contracts.
Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes:
Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators decreased bets for all of the major currencies except the US dollar with many significant weekly position changes.
Notable changes on the week for the Major Currencies:
- Euro positions continued to fall sharply last week and pushed euro positions over the -128k level. The euro speculative level is at the most bearish since August of 2012 as there has been three straight weeks of decline near -20,000 contracts
- British pound sterling positions dropped for a fifth straight week to the lowest level since early February as the GBP/USD exchange rate continued its downtrend to under 1.6900
- Japanese yen bets fell sharply last week (-22,330) as overall bearish positions advanced to over -95,000 contracts. This is the most bearish level since March 11th
- Swiss franc bets declined for the 3rd straight week and to the most bearish level in over a year (since June 11th 2013)
- Canadian dollar positions decreased slightly after advancing for the previous seven weeks in a row
- Australian dollar net positions dropped by -6,306 contracts as traders cut back on their Aussie long positions
- New Zealand dollar net positions edged slightly lower last week as both long positions (-4,603) and short positions (-3,814) fell for the week
- Mexican peso positions fell sharply last week by -44,682 contracts as traders unwound their positions. Overall bullish positions stood at +32,433 which is the lowest long peso level since April
This latest COT data is through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data below.
Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price
Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/01/2014 | 291488 | 52665 | 113441 | -60776 | -3273 |
| 07/08/2014 | 294381 | 51595 | 110860 | -59265 | 1511 |
| 07/15/2014 | 310661 | 59506 | 122352 | -62846 | -3581 |
| 07/22/2014 | 339706 | 58142 | 146965 | -88823 | -25977 |
| 07/29/2014 | 356865 | 56562 | 164637 | -108075 | -19252 |
| 08/05/2014 | 379004 | 55179 | 183926 | -128747 | -20672 |
Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/01/2014 | 255911 | 99929 | 43517 | 56412 | 6661 |
| 07/08/2014 | 254788 | 86614 | 44975 | 41639 | -14773 |
| 07/15/2014 | 255115 | 85983 | 47213 | 38770 | -2869 |
| 07/22/2014 | 241155 | 71792 | 44295 | 27497 | -11273 |
| 07/29/2014 | 237411 | 75370 | 50460 | 24910 | -2587 |
| 08/05/2014 | 230801 | 66437 | 54316 | 12121 | -12789 |
Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/01/2014 | 156480 | 18739 | 77425 | -58686 | 12537 |
| 07/08/2014 | 157710 | 11174 | 77549 | -66375 | -7689 |
| 07/15/2014 | 155127 | 8385 | 71333 | -62948 | 3427 |
| 07/22/2014 | 162029 | 11979 | 65895 | -53916 | 9032 |
| 07/29/2014 | 172210 | 7828 | 80897 | -73069 | -19153 |
| 08/05/2014 | 192906 | 9896 | 105295 | -95399 | -22330 |
Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/01/2014 | 35221 | 9731 | 16991 | -7260 | -1888 |
| 07/08/2014 | 35053 | 9136 | 15949 | -6813 | 447 |
| 07/15/2014 | 35007 | 8799 | 15061 | -6262 | 551 |
| 07/22/2014 | 38359 | 9642 | 17022 | -7380 | -1118 |
| 07/29/2014 | 44022 | 8665 | 20429 | -11764 | -4384 |
| 08/05/2014 | 57238 | 9247 | 28100 | -18853 | -7089 |
Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/01/2014 | 111438 | 44755 | 42060 | 2695 | 8015 |
| 07/08/2014 | 128555 | 58245 | 47950 | 10295 | 7600 |
| 07/15/2014 | 129787 | 60353 | 44732 | 15621 | 5326 |
| 07/22/2014 | 129188 | 62078 | 41497 | 20581 | 4960 |
| 07/29/2014 | 122619 | 56459 | 33768 | 22691 | 2110 |
| 08/05/2014 | 115261 | 48944 | 27489 | 21455 | -1236 |
Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/01/2014 | 114918 | 76598 | 37719 | 38879 | 5416 |
| 07/08/2014 | 101860 | 66705 | 30102 | 36603 | -2276 |
| 07/15/2014 | 105209 | 70881 | 31138 | 39743 | 3140 |
| 07/22/2014 | 109341 | 72170 | 33377 | 38793 | -950 |
| 07/29/2014 | 106836 | 69348 | 29742 | 39606 | 813 |
| 08/05/2014 | 98196 | 60860 | 27560 | 33300 | -6306 |
Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/01/2014 | 33455 | 26563 | 17578 | 8985 | 2833 |
| 07/08/2014 | 36123 | 26750 | 12334 | 14416 | 5431 |
| 07/15/2014 | 32879 | 26570 | 11117 | 15453 | 1037 |
| 07/22/2014 | 32728 | 26028 | 10896 | 15132 | -321 |
| 07/29/2014 | 30531 | 23552 | 8263 | 15289 | 157 |
| 08/05/2014 | 25603 | 18949 | 4449 | 14500 | -789 |
Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 07/01/2014 | 129425 | 85387 | 15825 | 69562 | 593 |
| 07/08/2014 | 126231 | 82777 | 13966 | 68811 | -751 |
| 07/15/2014 | 131108 | 86707 | 17070 | 69637 | 826 |
| 07/22/2014 | 142254 | 98823 | 19689 | 79134 | 9497 |
| 07/29/2014 | 145184 | 100551 | 23436 | 77115 | -2019 |
| 08/05/2014 | 143236 | 77535 | 45102 | 32433 | -44682 |
Disclaimer: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.