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FX Speculators Raised USD Bets To First Bullish Position Since April

Published 05/29/2016, 03:01 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies
US Dollar Cot large Speculators Sentiment Vs UUP ETF

US dollar net speculator positions rose last week to +$3.73 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators boosted their bets in favor of the US dollar last week and pushed speculative positions into a new bullish position after being in bearish territory for five straight weeks.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$3.73 billion as of Tuesday May 24th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$7.92 billion from the -$4.19 billion total short position that was registered on May 17th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar speculative position has now improved for three straight weeks and is back in bullish territory for the first time since April 12th.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Last week’s data showed that only the British pound sterling (+5,587 change in weekly contracts) saw higher speculative positions against the dollar.

All the other major currencies recorded lower speculative positions against the dollar on the week with the sharpest declines taking place in the Japanese yen (-36,860 weekly change in contracts), the Australian dollar (-24,769 contracts) and the euro (-15,308 contracts).

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Other currencies last week showing speculative positioning declines were the Swiss franc (-193 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,112 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,659 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-1,769 contracts).

Notable changes showed that Canadian dollar positions fell for a second week after rising for the previous sixteen straight weeks while Japanese yen positions dropped sharply and have now declined for five straight weeks.

Australian dollar positions have fallen rather sharply for four straight weeks and now hold a barely positive net position of just +124 contracts.

Last Six Weeks Net Position

This latest COT data is through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

Euro FX Chart

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
2016041951940-3863-469175134
2016042644726-7214-396677250
2016050327558-17168-2361916048
20160510294841926-218721747
20160517341164632-22587-715
201605244850114385-37895-15308
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British pound sterling:

British Pound -COT Large Speculator Sentiment

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
2016041971019-3162-55152-3842
2016042667606-3413-486696483
2016050356878-10728-404088261
2016051055022-1856-349355473
20160517609355913-38422-3487
2016052454031-6904-328355587

Japanese yen:

Japanese Yen COT large Speculator Sentiment Vs Yen ETF

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20160419-76829-6071718705680
20160426-67685914466498-5372
20160503-65495219061521-4977
20160510-63294220159047-2474
20160517-6243985558919-128
20160524-230353940422059-36860

Swiss franc:

Swiss- Franc - COT large Speculator Sentiment Vs Franc ETF

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20160419-10027-189094101172
20160426-466453639265-145
20160503-4870-2066829-2436
20160510-9783892691788
20160517444054184147-2770
201605241149870583954-193

Canadian dollar:

Canadian Dollar - COT large Speculator Sentiment Vs CAD ETF

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20160419-18065-796373084923
20160426-25684-7619119994691
20160503-30745-5061189436944
20160510-33890-3145258746931
20160517-3352736322706-3168
20160524-25595793220047-2659

Australian dollar:

Australian Dollar - COT large Speculator Sentiment Vs AUD/USD

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20160419-53551-8437441068984
20160426-68470-149195954015434
20160503-58577989352395-7145
20160510-427181585938158-14237
20160517-260881663024893-13265
20160524-60525483124-24769
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New Zealand dollar:

New Zealand Dollar COT large Speculator Sentimen Vs NZD/USD

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
20160419-5959-198553511059
20160426-9373-341473842033
20160503-10543-117092001816
20160510-96898549352152
20160517-682528646688-2664
20160524-418426414576-2112

Mexican peso:

Maxican Peso - COT large Speculator Sentiment Vs MXNUSD

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

DateNet Commercial PositionsWeekly Com ChangesNet Large Specs PositionsWeekly Spec Changes
2016041913463-33629-1440932182
20160426193445881-19315-4906
2016050312550-6794-124206895
201605104790335353-45220-32800
20160517489321029-45691-471
20160524501281196-47460-1769

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

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(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

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