EUR/USD Daily Analysis: US CPI data came out earlier today, and it came out slightly lower than expected (similar to Cable’s CPI reading yesterday). Perhaps not too surprising given the gains the USD has made recently, making some imported goods and services cheaper for US citizens. Lower inflation data could mean a delay in rate hikes, though a miss this small on such a strong USD is really a wash in our book.
Long-term the trend remains beairsh, but the recent rallies up to 1.2570 have increased the bullish short-term momentum. 1.2600 is key short-term resistance – a break above that level would turn our eyes to a much larger correction toward 1.29.
4h Chart
Our Preferred Trades*: With Yellen’s news conferences at 19:30 UTC today, market volume thinning before the holidays, and neither trend dominant at the moment we will stay flat for now. Short-term we remain bullish above 1.24. A break below 1.2400 and our short-term target becomes 1.23.
Long-term Trend Analysis Chart
Yesterday’s EURUSD SwingPRO Signal Result: No trades taken yesterday.
Today’s SwingPRO Signal: Flat.
*CandlePRO: CandlePRO can be used in conjunction with our daily analysis and “our preferred trades.” For example, if we prefer “going short” or “selling a rally” then we would look for bearish candlestick signals after a rally or near resistance levels. Alternative if we prefer “going long” or “buying a dip” then we would look for bullish candlestick signals on price drops or near support levels.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Dec 17 |
08:00 | CHF KOF Institute Winter Economic Forecast | |||
| 09:30 | GBP Bank of England Minutes | ||||
| 09:30 | GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (OCT) | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | |
| 09:30 | GBP Claimant Count Rate (NOV) | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | |
| 09:30 | GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (OCT) | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | |
| 09:30 | GBP Jobless Claims Change (NOV) | -26.9K | -20.0K | -25.1K | |
| 10:00 | CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (DEC) | -4.9 | -7.6 | ||
| 10:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (NOV F) | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 10:00 | EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV F) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10:00 | EUR Eurozone CPI (MoM) (NOV) | -0.2% | -0.2% | ||
| 12:00 | USD MBA Mortgage Applications (DEC 12) | -3.3% | 7.3% | ||
| 13:30 | USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (NOV) | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | |
| 13:30 | USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | |
| 13:30 | USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (NOV) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13:30 | USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (NOV) | -0.3% | -0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 19:00 | USD Fed Summary of Economic Projections | ||||
| 19:00 | USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (DEC 17) | 0.25% | 0.25% | ||
| 19:30 | USD Fed Chair Yellen Holds News Conference Post FOMC Release | ||||
| 23:50 | JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds(DEC 12) | -¥852.2B | |||
| 23:50 | JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Dec 12) | ¥115.2B |