Forex Market Recap: Week Of January 26-30

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of January 26th through January 30th
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of January 26th through January 30th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, January 25th

• All Day EUR Greek Parliamentary Election: The left-wing Syriza party won the Greek legislative election for the first time ever, securing 149 out of the 300 seats, 2 seats short of a majority. UK Prime Minister, David Cameron said that, "What the Greek election will also show is that there are some warning signs in the global economy, including in the eurozone, less rapid growth from the developing economies. These point to the importance of sticking to our economic plan which we are delivering". The currency fell.
• All Day AUD Bank Holiday
• 11:50pm BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, "The Bank will purchase Japanese government bonds (JGBs) so that their amount outstanding will increase at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen. With a view to encouraging a decline in interest rates across the entire yield curve, the Bank will conduct purchases in a flexible manner in accordance with financial market conditions. The average remaining maturity of the Bank's JGB purchases will be about 7-10 years.The Bank will purchase exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) so that their amounts outstanding will increase at annual paces of about 3 trillion yen and about 90 billion yen respectively." The currency rose.
• 11:50pm JPY Trade Balance -0.71T versus -0.74T expected. The currency fell.

Monday, January 26th

• 9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate survey 106.7 versus 106.7 expected. The currency rose.
• 9:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 35.7K versus 36.6K expected. The currency rose.
• All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings: Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem stated that, "We are first going to Greece. Let me first of all say, from this podium, that we of course congratulate the party that won the Greek elections and have now formed a Greek government and that we wish them, of course, success in their work and we look forward to working with them, the way we worked with the previous Greek government. We will support them in their quest for economic recovery of Greece. We are glad that their ambition is to realise this within the eurozone and that is exactly our ambition too. I am sure you will have a lot of questions of what will now happen, the current programme, the future etc, but there is very little I can say about it at this moment, for the simple reason that the new Greek government has yet to take office, get started." The currency rose.

Tuesday, January 27th

• 12:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence survey 2 versus last 1 expected. The currency rose.
• 9:30am GBP Preliminary GDP 0.5% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
• All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings: European Commission Vice-President EC Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis said that, "Our discussions today covered the economic situation in Europe, measures to strengthen the economic recovery, Greece following Sunday's elections, financial support to Ukraine, and the future of the Economic and Monetary Union". The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders -0.8% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders -3.4% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
• 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence survey 102.9 versus 95.7 expected. The currency rose.
• 3:00pm USD New Home Sales 481K versus 452K expected. The currency rose.

Wednesday, January 28th

• 12:30am AUD CPI 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
• 12:30am AUD Trimmed Mean CPI 0.7% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
• 7:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate survey 9.3 versus 9.2 expected. The currency fell.
• 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 8.9M versus last 10.1M expected. The currency rose.
• 7:00pm USD FOMC Statement noted that, "Inflation is anticipated to decline further in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely." The currency rose.
• 7:00pm USD Federal Funds Rate Decision unchanged at <0.25% versus <0.25% expected. The currency rose.
• 8:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate Decision unchanged at 3.50% versus 3.50% expected. The currency fell.
• 8:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement noted that, "World oil prices have fallen 60 percent since June last year, which will boost spending power in oil importing economies but reduce incomes for oil exporters. The oil price decline, together with uncertainties around the transition of US monetary policy, has led to an increase in financial market volatility. The lower oil price will have a significant impact on prices and activity in New Zealand. The most direct and immediate effects are through fuel prices, with the price of regular petrol falling from a national average of $2.23 in mid-2014 to $1.73 currently. This will increase households’ purchasing power and lower the cost of doing business." The currency fell.
• 9:45pm NZD Trade Balance -159M versus -70M expected. The currency fell.
• 11:50pm JPY Retail Sales 0.2% versus 1.1% expected. The currency rose.

Thursday, January 29th

• 12:30am AUD Import Prices 0.9% versus 1.5% expected. The currency fell.
• 7:00am GBP Nationwide HPI 0.3% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
• All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI -1.0% versus -0.8% expected. The currency rose.
• 8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -9K versus -9K expected. The currency rose.
• 9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 3.6% versus 3.6% expected. The currency rose.
• 9:00am EUR Private Loans -0.5% versus -0.5% expected. The currency rose.
• 10:19am EUR Italian 10-year Bond Auction 1.62 average yield with a 1.4 bid to cover ratio versus last average yield 1.89 percent with a 1.3 bid to cover ratio expected. The currency rose.
• 11:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 39 versus 61 expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 265K versus 301K expected. The currency rose.
• 3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales -3.7% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
• 9:45pm NZD Building Consents -2.1% versus 10.0% expected. The currency fell.
• 11:30pm JPY Household Spending -3.4% versus -2.3% expected. The currency fell.
• 11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI 2.2% versus 2.2% expected. The currency fell.
• 11:50pm JPY Preliminary Industrial Production 1.0% versus 1.3% expected. The currency fell.

Friday, January 30th

• 12:30am AUD PPI 0.1% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
• 7:00am EUR German Retail Sales 0.2% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
• 7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending 1.5% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
• 8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 97.0 versus 94.8 expected. The currency rose.
• 8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI -1.4% versus -1.5% expected. The currency fell.
• 8:00am EUR Spanish Flash GDP 0.7% versus 0.5% expected. The currency fell.
• 9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals 2.2B versus 3.2B expected. The currency fell.
• 10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate -0.6% versus -0.5% expected. The currency fell.
• 10:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate 0.6% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
• 10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 11.4% versus 11.5% expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm CAD GDP -0.2% versus -0.1% expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Advance GDP 2.6% versus 3.1% expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Advance GDP Price Index 0.0% versus 0.9% expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Employment Cost Index 0.6% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
• 2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 59.4 versus 58.1 expected. The currency rose.
• 3:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 98.1 versus 98.5 expected. The currency rose.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.11424 open to a 1.12932 close.

USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 117.635 open to 117.432 close.

GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from 1.50027 open to a 1.50306 close.

AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 0.78878 open to a 0.77610 close.

USD/CAD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.24443 open to a 1.27125 close.

NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 0.7416 open to a 0.7253 close.

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