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USD COT Positioning Dips After 4 Weeks Of Rises

Published 01/25/2015, 02:02 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

USD Non-Commercial Weekly Net $ Amount

US Dollar spec positioning dips after four weeks of rises

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators slightly decreased their net bullish positions of the US dollar after raising their bets for the previous four weeks.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $46.22 billion as of Tuesday January 20th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$0.74 billion from the $46.96 billion total long position that was registered on January 13th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The latest US dollar bullish level, despite the decline, remains above the +$40 billion mark for a fourth straight week and maintains an overall net bullish position against all the other major currencies.

Overall Speculative Net US Dollar Contracts

Weekly USD Non-Commercial Net Contracts

In terms of total net speculative contracts, overall US dollar contracts decreased for the first time in five weeks last week to a total of +437,873 contracts as of Tuesday January 20th. This was a change by -10,802 contracts from the total of +448,675 contracts as of Tuesday January 13th. This total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies than the Reuters dollar amount total and is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes: One Sided – All currencies continue to remain net bearish versus the USD

Weekly Net Non-Commercial Futures Contracts Vs USD

Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets last week in favor of the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the Mexican Peso while decreasing weekly bets for the euro, British pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.

This latest COT data is through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

Euro:

Euro Chart
Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
12/16/2014 368171 56179 182834 -126655 10257
12/23/2014 376849 40690 187294 -146604 -19949
12/30/2014 386295 43202 195421 -152219 -5615
01/06/15 406624 46016 207056 -161040 -8821
01/13/2015 422426 50858 218709 -167851 -6811
01/20/2015 450262 52047 232777 -180730 -12879

British Pound Sterling:

British Pound Chart

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
12/16/2014 137581 37861 52413 -14552 9050
12/23/2014 141455 36615 51848 -15233 -681
12/30/2014 143660 35072 54374 -19302 -4069
01/06/2015 161876 39156 64726 -25570 -6268
01/13/2015 178563 41920 79060 -37140 -11570
01/20/2015 182860 35319 81027 -45708 -8568

Japanese Yen:

Japanese Yen Chart
Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
12/16/2014 227685 45652 132579 -86927 17209
12/23/2014 226107 29021 122763 -93742 -6815
12/30/2014 226629 28836 125155 -96319 -2577
01/06/2015 228954 33160 123243 -90083 6236
01/13/2015 231223 25872 120497 -94625 -4542
01/20/2015 215413 26525 104411 -77886 16739

Swiss Franc:

Swiss Franc Chart

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
12/16/2014 51377 18905 22560 -3655 18442
12/23/2014 55021 6514 23360 -16846 -13191
12/30/2014 57951 8851 25396 -16545 301
01/06/2015 64427 5547 29718 -24171 -7626
01/13/2015 66272 4922 31366 -26444 -2273
01/20/2015 47236 8226 18035 -9809 16635

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian Dollar Chart

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
12/16/2014 129475 32397 48091 -15694 -1332
12/23/2014 98477 33904 46091 -12187 3507
12/30/2014 97308 32726 46759 -14033 -1846
01/06/2015 103775 31275 48362 -17087 -3054
01/13/2015 105003 27599 48778 -21179 -4092
01/20/2015 111631 24238 53318 -29080 -7901

Australian Dollar:

Australian Dollar Chart

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
12/16/2014 116787 26786 61039 -34253 10760
12/23/2014 118773 26180 65416 -39236 -4983
12/30/2014 120316 24646 65343 -40697 -1461
01/06/2015 122205 16981 65633 -48652 -7955
01/13/2015 119819 14778 60143 -45365 3287
01/20/2015 110904 9828 56408 -46580 -1215

New Zealand Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar Chart

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
12/16/2014 18447 9865 10504 -639 1656
12/23/2014 19295 9786 11194 -1408 -769
12/30/2014 18071 8236 10082 -1846 -438
01/06/2015 19437 9865 10772 -907 939
01/13/2015 21064 8396 10172 -1776 -869
01/20/2015 22818 10941 12758 -1817 -41

Mexican peso:

Mexican Peso Chart

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date Open Interest Long Specs Short Specs Large Specs Net Weekly Change
12/16/2014 137628 25843 78599 -52756 -4162
12/23/2014 130728 17311 80681 -63370 -10614
12/30/2014 129467 15878 79683 -63805 -435
01/06/2015 131121 18667 83118 -64451 -646
01/13/2015 131155 17305 71600 -54295 10156
01/20/2015 148671 19017 65280 -46263 8032

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

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