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Forex Forecasts: September 1 - September 5, 2014

Published 09/01/2014, 06:56 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of September 1st – September 5th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, September 1st

  • 2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI (51.2 expected)
  • 2:45am CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (50.3 expected)
  • 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI (55.1 expected, > good for currency)
  • All Day CAD Bank Holiday
  • All Day USD Bank Holiday

Tuesday, September 2nd

  • 2:30am AUD Building Approvals (1.7% expected, > good for currency)
  • 5:30am AUD Cash Rate Decision (unchanged at 2.50% expected, > good for currency)
  • 5:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Construction PMI (61.5 expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (57.0 expected, > good for currency)

Wednesday, September 3rd

  • 2:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (54.2 expected)
  • 2:30am AUD GDP (0.4% expected, > good for currency)
  • 4:20am AUD RBA Governor Stevens speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 7:30pm GBP Services PMI (58.6 expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 3:00pm CAD Overnight Rate (unchanged at 1.00% expected, > good for currency)

Thursday, September 4th

  • 2:30am AUD Retail Sales (0.4% expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:30am AUD Trade Balance (-1.77B expected, > good for currency)
  • Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility (unchanged at 375B expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate (unchanged at 0.50% expected, > good for currency)
  • Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate Decision (unchanged at 0.15% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (216K expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Trade Balance (0.9B expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Trade Balance (-42.5B expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (298K expected, < good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (57.3 expected, > good for currency)

Friday, September 5th

  • 1:30pm CAD Employment Change (10.3K expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate (7.0% expected, < good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls (222K expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate (6.1% expected, < good for currency)
  • 3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI (55.7 expected, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.3152, 1.3161/65, 1.3172/77, 1.3187/1.3206, 1.3220/42, 1.3294/99, 1.3305/08, 1.3318/24, 1.3332/35, 1.3344/53, 1.3366, 1.3376/89, 1.3398/1.3416, 1.3432/44, 1.3451, 1.3473/82, 1.3489/1.3524, 1.3538, 1.3546/88, 1.3597, 1.3602/15, 1.3621/31, 1.3639/50, 1.3663/76, 1.3682/86, 1.3685/1.3710, 1.3714/16, 1.3731/39, 1.3748, 1.3758/74, 1.3784/98, 1.3807, 1.3810/20, 1.3824, 1.3832/36, 1.3845/54, 1.3864, 1.3875/78, 1.3888/92, 1.3905/14, 1.3937, 1.3947, 1.3966/69, 1.3993/1.4000, 1.4246 and 1.4500/17.

Above:1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:

Initial: 1.3130, 1.3126, 1.3093/1.3106, 1.3077, 1.3059/66, 1.3047 and 1.3003.

Below:1.3000, 1.2904/98, 1.2837/79, 1.2821, 1.2795/1.2805, 1.2744/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89, 1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91, 1.2323/33, 1.2241/55, 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.204132 and 1.1938.

USD/JPY: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 104.07/19, 104.36, 104.63, 104.83/91, 105.18, 105.33 and 105.41/43.

Above: 107.18, 108.42, 110.39/47 and 111.60.

Support:

Initial: 103.91, 103.82, 103.73/75, 103.37/43, 103.30, 102.92/103.08, 102.57/82, 102.49/52, 102.33/40, 102.26, 102.13/14, 101.90/102.04, 101.60/83, 101.50/56, 101.42/43, 101.30/32, 101.08/27, 100.82/86, 100.75, 100.60/65, 100.38/48, 100.22, 100.00, 99.94, 99.66, 99.40, 99.25, 99.13/14, 99.00, 98.84/92, 98.63/72, 98.48/53, 98.28, 98.20, 98.08, 97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05,96.81, 96.65/70, 96.55/56, 96.05, 95.79/80, and 95.44.

Below: 94.90/95.07, 94.87, 94.55, 94.19, 94.05, 93.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32, 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.

GBP/USD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.6611/17, 1.6624, 1.6640/56, 1.6665/67, 1.6683, 1.6692/98, 1.6716/24, 1.6730/37, 1.6745, 1.6755, 1.6765/68, 1.6777, 1.6785, 1.6800/02, 1.6812, 1.6819/22, 1.6831/44, 1.6874/87, 1.6902/09, 1.6919/20, 1.6951, 1.6960, 1.6995, 1.7000, 1.7010, 1.7035, 1.7042/51, 1.7058/62, 1.7084, 1.7094/99, 1.7107, 1.7130, 1.7167, 1.7176/78 and 1.7190.

Above: 1.7440.

Support:

Initial: 1.6592, 1.6576/86, 1.6548, 1.6534, 1.6516, 1.6484, 1.6458/65, 1.6441, 1.6417/18,1.6400, 1.6394, 1.6380/83, 1.6376, 1.6348, 1.6336, 1.6298/1.6309, 1.6290, 1.6251/62, 1.6239/46, 1.6222/24, 1.6215/16, 1.6195/98, 1.6177, 1.6155, 1.6130/36, 1.6109/21, 1.6083/96, 1.6071/77, 1.6051/66, 1.6001/08, 1.5975/91, 1.5956/61, 1.5948, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/93, 1.5874/77, 1.5853, 1.5844, 1.5825, 1.5803/07, 1.5775/81, 1.5750, 1.5714/17, 1.5683/92, 1.5673, 1.5624/56, 1.5601/15, 1.5591, 1.5561/68, 1.5538/45 and 1.5514/16.

Below: 1.5498/99, 1.5476/79, 1.5458, 1.5434, 1.5427, 1.5403/21, 1.5313/92, 1.5304, 1.5293, 1.5260/62, 1.5237/39, 1.5208/23, 1.5198, 1.5173/87, 1.5164, 1.5152/57, 1.5130, 1.5123, 1.5101, 1.5092, 1.5081, 1.5072/75, 1.5026/32, 1.5013, 1.5007. 1.4985, 1.4966/67, 1.4884, 1.4872, 1.4856, 1.4830, 1.4812 and 1.4785, 1.4345 and 1.4232.

AUD/USD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 0.9343/53, 0.9359/86, 0.9391/0.9410, 0.9420/24, 0.9428/33, 0.9440/47, 0.9455/57, 0.9469 and 0.9483/86.

Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27, 0.9536/42, 0.9571, 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9640, 0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77 and 1.0181/82.

Support:

Initial: 0.9328/34, 0.9311, 0.9286/94, 0.9304, 0.9268/74, 0.9232/57, 0.9214/26, 0.9200/08, 0.9179/89, 0.9162/67, 0.9147, 0.9127/37, 0.9110/19, 0.9102, 0. 9072/79, 0.9061/66, 0.9054/57, 0.9042/48, 0.9041, 0.9035, 0.8994/0.9008, 0.8981/87, 0.8967/69, 0.8951/57, 0.8923/36, 0.8918, 0.8906/12, 0.8887/92, 0.8869, 0.8857/61, 0.8842/47, 0.8819/25, 0.8762/70, 0.8729, 0.8693, 0.8659, 0.8578 and 0.8512.

Below: 0.8066 and 0.7674.

USD/CAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.0873/86, 1.0894, 1.0903/09, 1.0915, 1.0925/28, 1.0934, 1.0943/45, 1.0954/59, 1.0962/66, 1.0982/1.1001, 1.1032/53, 1.1069/70, 1.1089, 1.1099, 1.1102/09, 1.1116/32, 1.1141, 1.1152, 1.1158, 1.1172/73, 1.1194, 1.1223 and 1.1277.

Above: 1.1723, 1.2985, 1.3007/14 and 1.3062.

Support:

Initial: 1.0852/59, 1.0849, 1.0839/40, 1.0820/27, 1.0813, 1.0793/96, 1.0742/85, 1.0736, 1.0726, 1.0717, 1.0702/09, 1.0693, 1.0668/79, 1.0646/60, 1.0619/29, 1.0608,1.0580/87, 1.0567/71, 1.0558/59, 1.0546, 1.0519/22, 1.0506, 1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87, 1.0459, 1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04, 1.0390/92, 1.0379, 1.0355/68, 1.0333, 1.0324, 1.0309/12, 1.0283/1.0305, 1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018 and 1.0012.

Below: 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZD/USD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 0.8359/66, 0.8376, 0.8406, 0.8413, 0.8421/59, 0.8472/79, 0.8487/89, 0.8499, 0.8504/18, 0.8523/37, 0.8542/53, 0.8560/61, 0.8571/78, 0.8584/90, 0.8602/05, 0.8633/41, 0.8647/53, 0.8660/67, 0.8671/74, 0.8693/0.8700, 0.8712/18, 0.8734, 0.8744, 0.8764/77, 0.8789, 0.8792, 0.8821 and 0.8834.

Above: 0.8840.

Support:

Initial: 0.8322/53, 0.8302/16, 0.8291/95, 0.8285/87, 0.8280, 0.8271, 0.8263, 0.8250/55, 0.8221/41, 0.8204/14, 0.8195/97, 0.8186, 0.8171, 0.8160/63, 0.8147/53, 0.8114/37, 0.8100/09, 0.8078/82, 0.8049/60, 0.8030, 0.7989/0.8013, 0.7967, 0.7932, 0.7903/06, 0.7888, 0.7872, 0.7856/57, 0.7838/46, 0.7829, 0.7819 and 0.7804.

Below: 0.7795, 0.7783, 0.7760, 0.7751/58, 0.7731/34, 0.7705/23, 0.7697, 0.7681/86, 0.7605/76 and 0.7500/85.

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