Forex Followup : March 24 - March 28, 2014

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of March 24th through March 28th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of March 24th through March 28th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, March 24th

• 2:45am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.1 versus 48.1 expected. 9:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.9 versus 49.8 expected. The currency rose.
• 9:00am EUR French Flash Services PMI 51.4 versus 47.9 expected. The currency rose.
• 9:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.8 versus 54.7 expected. The currency rose.
• 9:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 54.0 versus 55.8 expected. The currency rose.
• 10:00am EUR EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.0 versus 53.2 expected. The currency rose.
• 10:00am EUR EZ Flash Services PMI 52.4 versus 52.6 expected. The currency rose.
• 12:00pm EUR German Buba Monthly Report noted that, "The global economy progressively improved during 2013 after getting off to a slow start. In the final quarter of 2013, the world economy probably just about maintained the moderate pace of growth it had generated up to then." The currency rose.
• 2:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.5 versus 56.6 expected. The currency fell.
• All Day ALL G7 Meetings: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that, “As long as the political environment for the G8 is not at hand, as is the case at the moment, there is no G8 – neither as a concrete summit meeting or even as a format for meetings”.
• 5:30pm CAD Governing Council Member Lane said that, "Financial benchmarks are used in a variety of contracts to specify what, or how much money, is to be delivered on particular dates. One example is floating - rate debt, where the borrower pays the lender an amount of interest based on a benchmark that varies from one period to another according to a selected measure of interest rates." The currency rose.

Tuesday, March 25th

• 5:45am AUD RBA Deputy Governor Lowe said that, "In my own view, the internationalisation of the renminbi (RMB) – and the changes that accompany it – could ultimately prove to be as transformative for global capital markets as was the earlier opening up of China's borders for the global trading system. Even if this turns out to be only half correct, then we need to better understand the process of internationalisation of the RMB, including the pitfalls and the opportunities." The currency rose.
• 10:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 110.7 versus 110.9 expected. The currency fell.
• 10:30am GBP CPI 1.7% versus 1.7% expected. The currency rose.
• 10:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 47.6K versus 50.0K expected. The currency rose.
• 10:30am GBP PPI Input -0.4%versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
• 10:30am GBP RPI 2.7%versus 2.6% expected. The currency rose.
• 12:00pm GBP CBI Realized Sales 13 versus 30 expected. The currency rose.
• 2:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI 13.2%versus 13.3% expected. The currency rose.
• 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 82.3 versus 78.7 expected. The currency rose.
• 3:00pm USD New Home Sales 440K versus 447K expected. The currency rose.
• 11:30pm AUD RBA Deputy Governor Lowe said that, "The relatively high reliance of Australian issuers on the offshore market is evident in the data on the composition of corporate bonds outstanding. Currently, bonds that were issued offshore account for around 80 per cent of the outstanding value of bonds issued by Australian-based corporations. A decade ago, this figure was considerably lower at around 50 per cent. The offshore market is favoured by companies that want to raise foreign currency funding as a natural hedge against their foreign currency revenue." The currency rose.

Wednesday, March 26th

• 12:00am USD FOMC Member Plosser said that, "Tonight I would like to focus on a particular aspect of current monetary policy that has been a source of much discussion and debate — forward guidance — that is, the practice of providing information on the way monetary policy is likely to evolve in the future. Forward guidance has taken on greater significance since the FOMC lowered the target federal funds rate to essentially zero more than five years ago. Facing this zero lower bound constraint on its primary policy instrument, the FOMC has been attempting to implement monetary policy, in part, by influencing expectations of future policy." The currency rose.
• 1:30am AUD RBA Financial Stability Review noted that, "Indicators of distress in the business sector, such as failures and non-performing loans, generally continued to ease through 2013 and conditions appear to have improved. The period of deleveraging that took place following the financial crisis appear to have run its course, though the overall need for external funding by businesses, including demand for credit, remains modest." The currency rose.
• 7:00am AUD RBA Governor Stevens said that, "Overall, in 2014 economic global growth is thought likely by major forecasters to be a bit higher than in 2013, and at about average pace. More of the growth is coming from the advanced countries, and proportionately not quite so much from the emerging ones. That is probably a welcome re-balancing in some respects, after the weakness of the advanced countries in recent years." The currency rose.
• 8:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 8.5 versus 8.5 expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 0.2%versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders 2.2%versus 1.1% expected. The currency rose.
• 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 6.6M versus last 5.9M expected. The currency rose.
• 10:45pm NZD Trade Balance 818M versus 600M expected. The currency rose.

Thursday, March 27th

• 10:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 1.3%versus 1.3% expected. The currency fell.
• 10:00am EUR Private Loans -2.2% versus -2.1% expected. The currency fell.
• 10:30am GBP Retail Sales 1.7%versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 311K versus 326K expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD FOMC Member Pianalto said that, "The Federal Reserve has a number of responsibilities, many of which you may not be familiar with. For example, the Federal Reserve serves as the lender of last resort. Federal Reserve Banks can make loans to address financial panics, and we certainly made use of that power during the financial crisis in 2008. We supervise the banking system. We work to ensure an accessible, efficient, and secure US payments system, and we serve as the federal government’s bank. Our community development efforts support the economic growth of low- and moderate-income neighborhoods across the country." The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Final GDP 2.6% versus 2.7% expected. The currency rose.
• 3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales -0.8% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.

Friday, March 28th

• 12:30am JPY Household Spending -2.5% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
• 12:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI 1.0% versus 0.9% expected. The currency fell.
• 12:50am JPY Retail Sales 3.6% versus 3.6% expected. The currency fell.
• All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI 0.3% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
• 8:45am EUR French Consumer Spending 0.1% versus 1.0% expected. The currency rose.
• 10:30am GBP Current Account -22.4B versus -13.5B expected. The currency rose.
• 10:30am GBP Final GDP 0.7% versus 0.7% expected. The currency rose.
• 11:21am EUR Italian 10-year Bond Auction 3.29 average yield with a 1.3 bid to cover ratio versus last 3.42 average yield with a 1.6 bid to cover ratio. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Personal Spending 0.3% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
• 2:55pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey 80.0 versus 80.6 expected. The currency rose.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.6485 open to a 1.6632 close.

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.9095 open to a 0.9249 close.

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.1225 open to a 1.1053 close.

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.8535 open to a 0.8662 close.

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