Main event in Sweden will be the Q4 13 GDP figures. Our preferred indicator, the 'Danske Activity Index' is pointing to an outcome below 1% y/y (0.2% q/q), which is almost 0.5pp below the Riksbank forecast. Together with low inflation numbers last week it should further fuel speculation that the Riksbank might have to cut rates in the spring and weigh further on the SEK, pushing EUR/SEK well above 9.00.
In Norway labour market data and retail sales will set the agenda. We predict growth in retail sales of 0.8% m/m in January, with some risk to the upside.
On 20 February 2014 we recommended to go long NOK/SEK for a 108.00 target. We are now very close to this level and we lift our target to 109.50 and the stop to 106.00. The position was initially opened at 104.80.
Both Norway and Sweden are issuing in the 10Y government bond segment this week.
On Friday, Danmark's Nationalbank (DN) is set to publish January's securities statistics and foreign portfolio investment data. At the beginning of the year demand for safe haven assets abated further. This was noticeable in the demand for Swiss franc and the Norwegian kroner and Friday's data release will reveal if this was also the case for the Danish kroner. Danish Q4 13 GDP numbers will also be released.
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