Get 40% Off
⚠ Earnings Alert! Which stocks are poised to surge?
See the stocks on our ProPicks radar. These strategies gained 19.7% year-to-date.
Unlock full list

Eyeing A Trade In Corn

Published 08/14/2014, 01:17 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Corn looks interesting to me here for a few different reasons. First the basics: corn has been in a multi-year bear market, and has fallen over 50% from its 2012 highs. 2012 was kind of weird though because it was a giant fake rally off of drought worries. In reality the corn bear kind of started in 2011, like the bear markets in most other commodities.

Most bear markets fall about 50% or so, and severe bear markets like the one in gold stocks go down 60-70%. So corn has the option of ending the bear at a normal bear here, or going into a severe bear and falling another 20% or so. Here's a long term chart of corn and you can see that corn is now at support that held after the 2008 bear market.

Corn

Here's the daily chart of corn. You can see that since May corn has been annihilated in a severe 30% move lower in 3 months. That's quite a beating. Most longs have now probably been flushed out of this market. So basically the risk/reward down here is good, if corn breaks strong support at 350 it's time to get out of the trade. But if support holds you can take a long trade against that level with good risk/reward potential. I think starting out with selling puts might be a better strategy here because if corn just bases for a while then you can take in the premium even if corn goes nowhere.

Corn

I think corn will have to base a while before going into a bull market though so big trades seeking a new bull market in corn are probably premature. Corn is still technically in a Stage 4 downtrend but it's probably getting close to the end of its bear market.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.