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Euro trades on Friday closed down. The euro crumbled from its 1.1341 maximum by 1.5 figures. The fall was by 135 degrees. Demand for the dollar rose after Janet Yellen announced that there had been an improvement in US economic conditions; lifting expectations of an increase in the US interest rate. Nothing was said about when this may happen. The rise in the rate will be gradual, taking new labour market and inflation data into account.
Market expectations:
As you already know, on Mondays I look at movement against that of Friday. Whilst the experts are mulling over what Yellen said, today I expect the euro/dollar to rise to 1.1242. A spurt to 1.1255 is currently possible. The economic calendar for Europe today is bare, so the bulls don’t have anything to stop them reversing Friday’s weakening against the euro.
Day’s News (EET):
- 15:30, US base index for personal consumption expenditure in July and incomes for the month.
Technical Analysis:
Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1176 (current Asian), maximum: 1.1242, close: 1.1230.
The 112-135 degree zone is a correction inversion zone for the euro. The fall of the euro/dollar resumed at the 135th degree via 1.1182. Since today is Monday, I expect the price to rise to 1.1242. In the evening this level will drift towards the balance line and will become a resistance for the euro bulls. After trade close in Europe, a correction against this movement will look to take place.