Yesterday’s Trading:
On Friday the euro/dollar renewed to 1.1237. The pair ditched the session maximum after US secondary market housing sales for April showed a 1.7% rise to 5.45 million homes. On this news the euro returned to 1.12. The trading session closed near the balance line (simple average line).
Market Expectations:
On Monday the bulls have shifted Friday’s maximum to 1.1242. Asian activity is decent, only the trend line runs through 1.1252. It won’t be passed first time. It needs help from the euro/pound cross. A small correction is needed on it to offload the indicators after Friday’s growth.
Since the euro ended up sideways on Friday, today I expect to see it go to 79 points as part of the candle. I am inclined to believe we will see a break in the trend line during the American session and a strengthening of the euro to 1.1284.
Day’s News (EET):
- 10:00-11:00, Eurozone, German and French PMIs in the manufacturing and service sectors;
- 13:15, FOMC member Bullard to speak;
- 15:00, FOMC member Williams to speak;
- 16:45, US preliminary business activity index in manufacturing for May;
- 17:00, Eurozone May consumer confidence;
- 17:30, Australian index for leading indicators from CB for March.
Technical Analysis:
Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1205, maximum: 1.1284, close: 1.1262.
On Friday the euro spent 2/3 of the time near the balance line. I’ve made an upwards channel for a correctional movement from the 1.1179 minimum.
There’s a strong resistance forming at the intersection of the upper line of the channel and the trend line: 1.1253. I think the bulls will drop to it in the first half of the day. Then it’s necessary to wait out a few hours under the trend line so that the oscillator stochastic can return to the 50% zone.
According to the 90th degree, today’s target is 1.1284. The 90th degree isn’t an important resistance level for the euro/dollar, so the stops could be blown off with a gentle breeze and we’d be at 1.13.