A far more aggressive sell off than we had anticipated Friday for a bearish outside weekly pattern to signal a bearish breakout from our 1.2631 and 1.2433 range.
The inability to reverse above the down trend line from October has re-energized the bearish theme and rejected the basing effort above 1.2573/78 previous resistance peaks.
The plunge through 1.2433 and 1.2399/94 lows aims for more notable bear targets.
Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks:
Initial risk early this week is through the cycle low at 1.2358 this week
We now see a more negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.2295/ 1.2240 weekly targets from 2012.
Potentially through month-end and for December, the threat is lower, for 1.2145/35 and even the 2012 cycle low at 1.2042.
Momentum: The 8-day RSI, short-term momentum is falling and has scope to go still lower this week.
What Changes This? Above 1.2440 eases bear risks; through 1.2560 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.2600.
For Today: We see a downside bias for 1.2358; break here aims for 1.2336 and 1.2312, maybe key 1.2295. But above 1.2440 opens risk up to 1.2501/04.
