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European Market Update

ByTrade The News
Published 03/14/2013, 07:42 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
  • SNB maintains policy stance
  • Norway Central Bank cuts Rate Path Outlook
  • Spain special bond sale come in below analysts' target range

    Notes/Observations
    New Zealand central bank leaves Cash Rate unchanged (as expected) but cuts GDP outlook; says strong Kiwi currency is a significant concern

    South Korea Central Bank (BOK) leaves seven-Day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.75% (as expected but was not unanimous); Analysts see rate cut ahead as economy stagnates

    Australia Feb Employment data registers highest monthly increase in a decade; CPI hits five-month high; Markets respond by re-pricing expectations of another RBA easing, sending Australian equities down by 1%.

    Japan lower house lawmakers endorse Kuroda as next BoJ Gov; Also approve Nakaso and Iwata as BoJ Dep Govs, as expected; Upper House vote on Friday

    China formally elects Xi as president. 3000 delegates and only one no vote.

    EU Summit Draft: EU to endorse plans for a structural assessment of member budgets (ie may allow some countries extra time on deficits)

    SNB leaves both Interest Rates and EUR/CHF Cross levels unchanged, as expected

    Norway Central Bank lowers outlook for its Deposit Rate Path and sees the next hike out further than previously anticipated

    Spain sells bonds in special auction at lower yields and strong bid-to-cover; but overall amount below analysts' soft target between €1-2B

    Economic Data
    • (JP) Japan Feb Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -29.8% v -21.5% v prelim
    • (IN) India Feb Monthly Wholesale Prices (WPI): 6.8% v 6.6%e
    • (RU) Russia Feb YTD Budget Level (RUB): -259.5B v -81.3B priorto Budget Level to GDP Ratio: -2.7% v -1.8% prior
    • (FI) Finland Feb CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6% prior
    • (FI) Finland Jan Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: +1.5 v -0.3% prelim
    • (HU) Hungary Jan Final Industrial Production M/M: 2.9% v 2.9% prelim; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.4% prelim
    • (CZ) Czech Jan Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.5% v -2.2%e
    • (ES) Spain Jan Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -10.2% v -11.1%e; Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -9.0% v -10.2% prior
    • (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) leaves Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected; Cuts Special Deposit Account Rate (SDA) by 50bps to 2.50%
    • (EU) ECB: €197M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €16M prior; €112.9B parked in deposit facility vs. €149.6B prior
    • (CH) SNB left the 3-Month Libor Target Rate range unchanged between 0.00-0.25% and maintained the floor in EUR/CHF at 1.2000, both as expected
    • (NL) Netherlands Jan Trade Balance: €4.0B v €3.3B prior
    • (NL) Netherlands Jan Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.5% v -4.1% prior
    • (SE) Sweden Feb Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 8.4%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 8.2% v 8.1%e
    • (HK) Hong Kong Q4 Industrial Production Y/Y: +1.3% v -0.1% prior
    • (HK) Hong Kong Q4 Producer Price Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.4% prior
    • (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) left its Deposit Rate unchanged at 1.50%, as expected but lowered the Rate Path Outlook
    • (CZ) Czech Jan Current Account: (CZK): 6.0B v 10.0Be
    • (ZA) South Africa Jan Gold Production Y/Y: -8.1% v -21.2% prior; Mining Production Y/Y: +7.3% v -4.2%e
    • (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Employment Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.6% prior
    • (GR) Greece Q4 Unemployment Rate: 26.0% v 24.8% prior
    Fixed Income
    • (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €803M of 2029, 2040 and 2041 bonds in special auction
    • Sold €134M in 6% Jan 2029 bonds; Avg Yield: 5.224% v 5.787% prior, bid-to-cover 4.1x v 2.02x prior; Maximum Yield 5.258% v 5.822% prior; Tail 3.4bps v 3.5bps prior
    • Sold €304M in 4.9% 2040 Bono bond; Avg yield 5.434% v 5.893% prior, bid-to-cover 2.4x v 2.09x prior, Max Yield 5.445% v 5.928% prior; Tail 1.1bps
    • Sold €365M in 4.70% July 2041 Bono bond; Avg Yield 5.432% v 5.696% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 2.00x prior; Maximum Yield 5.454% v 5.705% prior; Tail 2.2bps v 0.9bps prior
    SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

    Equities
    FTSE 100 +0.20% at 6,496, DAX +0.70% at 8,028, CAC-40 +0.60% at 3,858, IBEX-35 +0.90% at 8,573, FTSE MIB +1% at 15,903, SMI +0.50% at 7,821, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,552

    European equity markets are mostly higher, tracking the gains in Asian and U.S. markets. Today's gains have been led by the Italian FTSE MIB, as the index underperformed on Wednesday's session. Earlier during the session, the DAX index hit a fresh multi-year high near 8045. European banks are trading mixed. Outperformers include BNP and Santander, while shares of UK banks and Commerzbank have lagged. Resource related firms are mostly lower, despite the gains in oil and copper prices.

    UK movers [Home Retail +15% (SSS above ests), Ocado +12% (talks related to agreement with WM Morrison), Aggreoko +2.5% (supply agreement), William Morrison +1.5% (raised dividend)]

    Germany movers [Lufthansa +3% (guided FY13 op profit higher y/y), K+S +3% (Outlook above ests, short-covering), HeidelbergCement +2% (FY results above ests), Leg Immobilien +1% (broker commentary); SGL Carbon -3% (FY results below ests), Volkswagen -2.5% (reaffirmed FY13 guidance), Wacker Chemie -2% (guided FY13 profits lower y/y)]

    France movers [Altran +2.5% (swung to profit in FY12)]

    Italy movers [Generali +5% (guided FY13 op profit higher y/y), Eni +1.5% (asset sale)]

    Switzerland movers [Bucher +2% (FY results above sts), Holcim +1% (joint venture agreement); Oerlikon -2% (CEO resigned)]

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