Euro Returns To Weakness; Gold Holds Positive Near-Term Tone

EUR/USD

The euro returned to weakness after fresh acceleration lower ended near-term consolidative phase between 1.3150 and 1.3220 limits. Fresh attempts lower target immediate support at 1.31, psychological support and low of September 2013, below which opens double-Fibonacci support at 1.3020 zone, 50% retracement of 1.2042/1.3992 ascend and 138.2% expansion of the wave from 1.3699. Near-term bears continue to favor further downside, with corrective rallies on oversold conditions, expected to interrupt and to be ideally capped under 1.32 barrier. Overextended daily studies, however, warn of more significant corrective action, which requires sustained break above near-term congestion tops at 1.3220 to be confirmed.

Res: 1.3133; 1.3150; 1.3194; 1.3220
Sup: 1.3117; 1.3103; 1.3050; 1.3020



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EUR/JPY

The pair maintains negative near-term tone and enters consolidative phase above fresh low at 136.40. Upside attempts remain for now capped broken bear-trendline, drawn off 137.98 peak, now acting as solid resistance. This signals further downside, as double top formed on a daily chart, with near-term studies being bearish. Descend so far retraced over 61.8% of 135.71/137.98 upleg, with extension below 136.35, 24 July / 12 Aug lows, required to open key 135.71, 08 Aug 9-month low, for retest. Corrective rallies should stay capped under 137.00/30 barriers, to keep fresh bears intact.

Res: 136.85; 137.00; 137.18; 137.30
Sup: 136.58; 136.35; 136.00; 135.71




GBP/USD

Cable near-term studies are regaining traction, as bounce off 1.6534 low attempts to sustain break above 1.66 barrier. Rallies were so far capped by descending 4-hour 55SMA at 1.6610, with break here, required to confirm basing attempt and bring bulls fully in play for push towards pivotal 1.6677/, 20 Aug lower top / 20/200SMA death cross and possible extension to the key near-term barrier at 1.6735 lower platform. However, overall negative tone sees current movements as corrective action and failure to clear 1.6735 barrier, would keep in play scenario of lower top formation and subsequent fresh weakness.

Res: 1.6651; 1.6677; 1.6685; 1.6735
Sup: 1.6585; 1.6560; 1.6534; 1.6500



USD/JPY

The pair remains in near-term corrective phase, off fresh high at 104.26, posted on 25 Aug, after fresh bulls cracked key 104.11, 04 Apr peak, the last obstacle en-route to 105.43, 02 Jan peak. Corrective easing found support at 103.50, 22 Aug low, ahead of fresh attempt through 104 barrier. This keeps near-term bulls in play for eventual push through 104.26, 25 Aug fresh high, to resume larger bulls towards psychological 105 barrier and key resistance at 105.43, 02 Jan peak. Today’s gap-higher open, confirms bullish stance, with corrective easing, expected to be ideally contained at 104.00/103.80 zone.

Res: 104.20; 104.26; 104.50; 105.00
Sup: 104.00; 103.80; 103.50; 103.20




AUD/USD

Near-term bulls remain in play, as the pair tested pivotal 0.9372 barrier, lower top of 06 Aug and 50% of 0.9503/0.9237 descend. Consolidative phase so far found support at 0.9320, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9237/0.9372, keeping immediate focus at the upside. Break above 0.9372 is required to confirm base at 0.9237 for more significant correction of 0.9503/0.9237 descend, with 0.94 psychological barrier / 61.8% retracement and 0.9415 lower top, seen as immediate targets. Otherwise, prolonged sideways trade could be expected in the near-term, in case of failure to break 0.9372 barrier, with bearish tone to be established in case of loss of 0.93 support.

Res: 0.9361; 0.9372; 0.9400; 0.9440
Sup: 0.9320; 0.9300; 0.9288; 0.9268



AUD/NZD

The pair trades in near-term consolidative phase under fresh highs, where acceleration from 1.1055 higher base was temporarily capped, ticks away from psychological 1.1200 barrier. Consolidative action is for now contained at 1.1125, where near-term base has been established, with hourly studies being neutral mode. However, underlying bull-trend remains intact and sees scope for fresh attempt higher, after completion of near-term consolidative phase, which should be ideally contained at 1.1125/00 levels, to keep bullish structure on 4-hour chart intact. Break above 1.1200 to open 1.1300/19, round figure/Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.1576/1.0488 descend.

Res: 1.1174; 1.1187; 1.1200; 1.1250
Sup: 1.1140; 1.1125; 1.1100; 1.1081




XAU/USD

Spot Gold holds positive near-term tone after extended corrective rally off 1272, peaked at 1296, 50% retracement of 1319/1272 descend, so far. Strong barrier at 1300, where psychological resistance, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1319/1272l and broken bull-trendline off 1240 low, mark a breakpoint, comes in near-term focus. Sustained break higher is required to improve larger picture technicals, which are still weak and confirm recovery rally resumption towards next strong barriers and key levels at 1319/22 zone. Dips so far found footstep at 1283, with higher low at 1280, required to stay intact, to keep fresh bulls in play.

Res: 1290; 1296; 1300; 1305
Sup: 1283; 1280; 1272; 1265