Euro Maintains Overall Negative Tone

EUR/USD

The euro maintains overall negative tone, to post new low at 1.3420, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion of the third wave from 1.3699, 01 July. Near-term narrow range consolidative action is under way and so far being capped by descending hourly 55 SMA. Negatively aligned hourly studies see current action limited at the upside, as 4-hour technicals are bearish and favor further downside, with break below 1.3420/00 supports expected to open next significant level at 1.3247, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of one year rally from 1.2042 to 1.3992. However, overextended daily studies require caution of possible stronger rally, which requires lift above initial 1.3483 lower top and break above lower platform at 1.3547, to confirm recovery.

Resistance: 1.3442; 1.3474; 1.3483; 1.3500
Support: 1.3420; 1.3400; 1.3380; 1.3350




EUR/JPY

The pair corrects higher from 136.37, where pullback from 137.23 lower top found temporary footstep. Rally needs sustained break above 137 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 137.23/136.37 to confirm higher low and open more significant 137.23, current correction peak, above which to confirm near-term base and allow for stronger recovery. Hourly studies turned positive and support fresh attempts higher, however, overall negative structure would keep the downside at risk in case of failure to clear 137.23. This would bring in focus key 136.21 higher low and pivotal support, loss of which would trigger fresh extension of pullback from 145.67, 27 Dec 2013 peak.

Resistance: 137.00; 137.23; 137.32; 137.48
Support: 136.81; 136.37; 136.21; 136.00




GBP/USD

Cable remains under pressure and consolidates recent losses which found temporary support at 1.6952. Consolidative action was so far capped at 1.7000 level, now reverted to resistance, with near-term directionless phase, expected to precede fresh leg lower, as near-term studies remain negative and daily indicators are attempting below the midlines. Immediate targets below 1.6959 lay at 1.6934, 50% retracement of 1.6697/1.7189 rally and daily Ichimoku cloud top, below which comes 1.6900, round-figure support and 1.6885, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Conversely, sustained break above 1.7000 barrier, would signal near-term base and open way for stronger recovery towards 1.7051, 24 July lower top.

Resistance: 1.7000; 1.7025; 1.7050; 1.7093
Support: 1.6959; 1.6934; 1.6900; 1.6885



USD/JPY

The pair maintains positive near-term tone and tests psychological 102 barrier, after acceleration above near-term 101.30/60 consolidative phase, also broke 101.78/85 lower tops, also 20/200 and 55/200 death crosses. Sustained break above 102 barrier, reinforced by 200SMA, is required to confirm bullish resumption and expose next pivotal barrier at 102.25, 03 July lower top. Positive near-term studies support the notion, however, still weak daily conditions require caution while the price holds below 102 barrier.

Resistance: 102.00; 102.25; 102.35; 102.78
Support: 101.71; 101.60; 101.30; 101.05



AUD/USD
The pair’s near-term price action is at the back foot, after recovery attempt off 0.9334 higher low stalled at 0.9468, failing to open way for final attack at key 0.9503, 01 July low. Instead, downside acceleration, which probed below psychological 0.94 handle, retraced 61.8% of 0.9334/0.9468 upleg, weakening near-term structure and signaling prolonged 0.9503/0.9320 range trading. However, daily indicators at their midlines could increase downside pressure and risk return to very strong 0.9320 base, loss of which is expected to accelerate lower and expose another strong support and higher base at 0.92 zone.

Resistance: 0.9405; 0.9422; 0.9447; 0.9468
Support: 0.9382; 0.9358; 0.9327; 0.9320




AUD/NZD

The pair remains well supported and probes above key 1.1030 barrier, after completing near-term 1.1012/1.0959 consolidation. Positive near-term studies remain support further extension higher on sustained break through 1.1030, which will signal an end of multi-month congestion between 1.0488 and 1.1030 and open fresh retracement of 1.1576/1.0488 downleg. Consolidation low at 1.0959, offers solid support, ahead of psychological 1.0900 support and should keep the downside protected.

Resistance: 1.1050; 1.1100; 1.1160; 1.1200
Support: 1.1000; 1.0959; 1.0920; 1.0900




XAU/USD

Spot Gold trades in near-term corrective mode and consolidates above 1300 barrier, after last week’s fresh weakness posted new low at 1287, where 200SMA contained weakness for now. Positive hourly structure favors further recovery, as the price stabilizes above 1300 support, with further upside action requiring regain of 1315/18 lower tops, to bring bulls back in play on 4-hour studies. This will confirm near-term bottom at 1287 and re-focus another key level at 1324, lower top of 18 July. Conversely, loss of 1300 support, would bring the downside risk back in play.

Resistance: 1309; 1315; 1318; 1324
Support: 1300; 1292; 1286; 1280