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Euro Inflation Set To Decline

Published 12/19/2014, 05:14 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

In our view, the continued decline in the oil price should result in negative euro inflation in December and we now forecast it will remain negative until Q4 15. This implies that average inflation should also be negative at -0.1% in 2015 (revised down from 0.4%).

Our forecast for inflation in 2015 is clearly below consensus of +0.6% and is also below the ECB's projection that inflation will be +0.7% in 2015. However, the ECB has estimated that inflation would be around +0.3% in 2015 if the development in the oil price and oil price futures until the beginning of December were incorporated in the ECB's projection (see December 2014 Eurosystem Staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area ). Including the oil price fall in December and the further fall in the forward market would probably give an even lower forecast.

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