In the last couple of weeks the EUR/USD has eased back from the resistance level at 1.39 after surging up higher to that level near the beginning of April. For the last couple of months now the euro has spent all of its time between two key levels of 1.37 and 1.39 with a two year high above 1.3960 being achieved in that time. The 1.38 level over that time has also reinforced itself as one of significance after providing stiff resistance on numerous occasions. Prior to the current trading range, throughout the first half of February the euro enjoyed a solid move higher moving from support around 1.35 up to test the key level at 1.37. It was able to move through the 1.37 level before consolidating and spending several weeks resting on support at that level.
To finish out January the euro continued its decline and moved to a two month low touching below the support level at 1.35. With the current trading range considered, the 1.3550 level seems a distant memory however it will most likely play a role should the euro drift lower and fall through the support at 1.37. With its present price action considered, a return back to the 1.37 level in the immediate future is likely.
November last year was a good turning point for the euro as it reversed well after the strong fall from the key 1.38 level. traded to the euro did well to bounce strongly off support at 1.34 and recover the lost ground from the previous couple of days which saw it fall from the resistance level around 1.3550. This was after a few weeks which saw it move steadily higher from a support level at 1.33 back up to a three week high just above 1.3550. Over the last few months 1.3550 has been a key level.
The confrontation in Ukraine continues to keep investors on edge over this long european holiday weekend. The situation remains precarious despite the unexpected four-party agreement in Geneva last week and the temporary suspension of the "anti-terrorist" campaign. The "he said-she said" activity is quickly exhausting the West's Russian sanctions stand -- it seems a more diplomatic approach with Russia is now required. Therefore, it's no real surprise that forex ranges have been tight, volatility kept to a minimum, and liquidity thin while watching and waiting for any positive developments on the geopolitical front.
EUR/USD April 21 at 23:45 GMT 1.3793 H:1.3830 L: 1.3787
EUR/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1.3800 | 1.3700 | 1.3550 | 1.3900 | --- | --- |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the euro is trading in a narrow range just below the key 1.38 level after having recently dropped sharply below from around 1.3830. Current range: just below 1.38 around 1.3795.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 1.3800, 1.3700 and 1.3550.
• Above: 1.3900.
OANDA's Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the EUR/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The EUR/USD long position ratio has moved back above 30% as the euro has eased back below 1.38. The trader sentiment remains heavily in favour of short positions.
Economic Releases
- 12:30 CA Wholesale Sales (Feb)
- 13:00 US FHFA House Price Index (Feb)
- 14:00 EU Flash Consumer Sentiment (Apr)
- 14:00 US Existing home sales (Mar)