GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies
Pending Orders
EUR/USD: buy at 1.0990, target 1.1240, stop-loss 1.0940, risk factor ***
GBP/USD: buy at 1.5470, target 1.5700, stop-loss 1.5400, risk factor ***
USD/JPY: buy at 122.10, target 124.20, stop-loss 121.40, risk factor **
USD/CHF: buy at 0.9300, target 0.9600, stop-loss 0.9235, risk factor **
AUD/USD: buy at 0.7480, target 0.7700, stop-loss 0.7420, risk factor **
EUR/CHF: buy at 1.0380, target 1.00580, stop-loss 1.0300, risk factor **
EUR/JPY: buy at 134.50, target 137.20, stop-loss 133.50, risk factor ***
AUD/NZD: buy at 1.1180, target 1.1450, stop-loss 1.1110, risk factor **
EUR/USD: Is The Apogee Of Greek Crisis Behind Us?
(buy at 1.0990)
- Greek electors voted 61.3% No to the bailout conditions rejected this month by their government.
- The EUR/USD had sunk below 1.1000 in initial trade in Asia after a Greferendum outcome was released. But the common currency bounced quickly and in morning trade in Europe. That was similar to how the currency traded last Monday after the collapse of talks between Eurozone leaders and Athens.
- In our opinion the apogee of the Greek crisis is behind us. Greek finance minister Yannis Varoufakis resigned on Monday. His sacrifice, after promising Greeks he would win a better deal within a day of their overwhelming referendum vote, suggested Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is determined to try to reach a last-ditch compromise with European leaders. Greece's chief negotiator in aid talks with international creditors, Euclid Tsakalotos, is the frontrunner to become finance minister. Tsipras insisted the vote did not mean a break with Europe. He has emphasised that euro membership is meant to be irreversible, with no legal avenue to boot a country out.
- Greek government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis said late Sunday that the Bank of Greece was asking for the ECB to provide money under its Emergency Liquidity Assistance mechanism. The ECB's policymaking governing council are holding a conference call today to decide whether maintain, increase or reduce a lifeline for Greek banks. The ECB policy will probably reject a Greek government request to raise the cap on emergency liquidity assistance provided by the Greek central bank and leave the limit unchanged.
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets French President Francois Hollande in Paris later in the day to seek a joint response ahead of an emergency summit of euro zone leaders in Brussels on Tuesday.
- Headline trading is risky but we are probably closing to a deal between Greece and its creditors so the EUR/USD long position could be profitable in the short term. We have placed our buy order at 1.0990.
- We expect the EUR/USD may rally in the short term, but it may be under pressure next weeks due to Fed’s getting more hawkish and probably suggesting a rate hike as soon as in September. That is why Fed’s chair Janet Yellen’s speech scheduled for Friday will be of key importance this week.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 1.1095 (hourly high Jul 6), 1.1122 (high Jul 2), 1.1144 (10-dma)
Support: 1.0969 (hourly low Jul 6), 1.0955 (low Jun 29), 1.0915 (low Jun 2)
USD/CHF: Swiss Economy Still Deep In Deflation
(buy at 0.9300)
- Swiss consumer prices went up 0.1% mom and fell 1.0% yoy in June vs. the median forecast for a 1.2% yoy drop.
- The amount of cash that commercial banks hold with the Swiss National Bank inched up last week, after the central bank said it had intervened in foreign exchange markets to stem the CHF rise amid uncertainty over Greece's financial future. Sight deposits, an indication of how inclined banks are to find a safe home for their money, typically rise when the SNB intervenes in foreign exchange markets to weaken the franc. Total sight deposits, which include other deposits on sight in Swiss francs, rose to CHF 457.865 billion from CHF 456.577 billion francs in the week ending June 26, data showed on Monday.
- Swiss economy minister Johann Schneider-Ammann said the CHF could strengthen further after the weekend Greek vote against austerity terms of a bailout. However, the EUR/CHF is rising strongly today from 1.0356 low overnight.
- In our opinion the potential for further CHF appreciation in the medium term is limited due to a deep deflation and poor performance of Swiss economy. We also see that the SNB is ready to intervene at the EUR/CHF levels below 1.0350. That is why we are looking to buy EUR/CHF at 1.0380. The CHF is also likely to weaken against the USD. In our opinion Fed will get more hawkish soon and probably will suggest a rate hike in September in July’s FOMC statement.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 0.9449 (high Jul 6), 0.9506 (high Jul 2), 0.9529 (200-dma)
Support: 0.9400 (low Jul 3), 0.9347 (30-dma), 0.9249 (low Jun 30)
Source: Growth Aces Forex Trading Strategies