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EUR/USD: Heading For 1.42, lower On Fed/ECB In 12M‏

Published 03/14/2014, 07:20 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

Following the March ECB meeting, we have opted to more fundamentally revise the level and profile of our EUR/USD forecast.

We now look for the cross to head a little higher in the near term into the low 1.40s on markets pricing limited ECB action and to stay around that level on a 3M horizon, notwithstanding the possibility of some vague form of easing in April.

The potential for downside from there will likely depend on the Fed tapering process as ECB rates are set to stay low for very long.

In our baseline scenario we see EUR/USD drift down to the mid 1.30s by year end. As a result, we now project the cross at 1.42 in 3M (previously: 1.34), 1.37 in 6M (1.30), and 1.32 in 12M (1.26).

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