EUR/USD: Bears Targets Are 1.0952 And 1.0912
- Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said the Fed should continue to focus on further progress in the U.S. labor market until inflation pressures emerge. He added that given inflation has been below the Fed's two-percent target rate for more than four years, there appeared no urgency to raise interest rates.
- Kashkari is not a voting member on the Fed's rate-setting commmittee until next year, but takes part in deliberations. Most Fed policymakers are backing a rate hike by year's end should the labor market and inflation continue to firm. Kashkari has yet to comment on when he prefers to see a rate increase and has said more patience is less risky than raising the benchmark interest rate too soon.
- The USD is on an uptrend on rising expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates as early as this year, with markets pricing in about a 70-percent chance of a hike in December. The EUR/USD is testing a support at 1.1015, 76.4% fibo of June-August rise.
- Investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's September meeting, scheduled to be released later on Wednesday, as well as U.S. retail sales data on Friday.
- Long black candlestick lines on Monday and Tuesday highlights the bearish market structure. The next EUR/USD bears targets are July low at 1.0952 and June low at 1.0912. We are looking to get short on upticks.
GBP/USD Supported By May’s Brexit Offer
- British Prime Minister Theresa May has offered to give lawmakers some scrutiny of the process to leave the European Union on condition they did not "undermine" her negotiations with 27 other members of the bloc.
- May has said she will trigger the formal EU divorce by the end of March but that she will not provide a running commentary on the process. She also said it is for ministers to decide when and how to trigger the EU exit by invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
- Lawmakers from the opposition Labour Party proposed a motion in Parliament that called for a full debate on the government's plan to leave the EU and demanding Parliament be "able properly to scrutinise that plan for leaving the EU before Article 50 is invoked."
- In an amendment proposed under May's name and posted on the Parliament website, the government said: "The process should be undertaken in such a way that respects the decision of the people of the UK when they voted to leave the EU."
- Any scrutiny must "not undermine the negotiating position of the Government as negotiations are entered into which will take place after Article 50 has been triggered," according to a copy of May's amendment.
- Theresa May's offer to give lawmakers some scrutiny of the process to leave the European Union calmed market fears of a "hard Brexit". Those fears - that Britain will give up full access to the EU's single market in order to impose maximum control on its borders - pushed the currency to 31-year lows last week. Many lawmakers seem to favour a "soft Brexit" or no Brexit at all and investors fear the "hard" option could hurt trade and foreign investment needed to fund Britain's huge current account deficit.
- The GBP/USD was up slightly after May’s Brexit offer. But the trend is clearly bearish on this pair. The market cleared most barriers on the way to Friday’s low below 1.1500. Our strategy is to sell the GBP/USD at 1.2350.
Source: GrowthAces.com - Daily Forex Trading Strategies