Talking Points
- EUR/USD breaks through 1.3220 and 1.3335 could be next.
- However, H4 close under 1.3187 reignites downtrend.
- US Dollar strength in August shouldn't surprise - it's a seasonally strong month.
Market liquidity may be thinning out ahead of the holiday weekend in the United States, but that hasn't halted the barrage of news flow this morning pushing around the Euro. While initially the series of weak economic data didn't hurt EUR/USD, over the last few hours EUR/CHF has dove to its lowest levels since December 2012.
European data this morning was weak across the board. Euro-Zone economic confidence dropped to an eight-month low in August. Italian wage growth is currently tracking at its weakest rate since 1982. The German economy added 2K to the unemployment pool in August against an expected contraction of -5K.
Concerns have proliferated on the geopolitical front. Ukraine openly accused Russia of invading the eastern portion of its country this morning, provoking fresh all-time lows in German Bund yields (last glance, the 10YY was at 0.889%).
Ahead of the extended weekend in the United States, EUR/USD finds itself at a potentially interesting crossroads, one that could determine whether or not we see new lows in the pair near $1.3100 or a return to former support near $1.3335.
Watch the above video for a technical breakdown of EUR/USD, USD/CHF, and the US DOLLAR Index.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist