Talking Points
- EUR/USD Under Pressure Amid Greek Headlines; Downward Trending Channel in Focus.
- USD/JPY Fails to Hold Above 120.00 Despite Calls for More Bank of Japan (BoJ) Support.
- US Dollar Pares Gains Despite Jump in Consumer Confidence- ADP, ISM Manufacturing in Focus.
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Despite denying the headline, EUR/USD struggling to hold gains amid news that Greece will not delay its payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due on April 9; may continue to see the downward trending channel take shape as the long-term bearish RSI momentum remains in play.
- String of lower-highs favors approach to ‘sell-bounces’ in EUR/USD, but need a break/close below 1.0710 (23.6% retracement) to favor a further decline in the exchange rate.
- DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD since March 9, with the ratio currently holding at -1.94.
- Lack of momentum to close above 120.00 (61.8% retracement) to 120.20 (50% expansion) may highlight the risk for more range-bound prices in USD/JPY; pair remains at risk of a further consolidation as the RSI retains the bearish trend carried over from December.
- May see the Japanese Yen face additional headline risk in the days ahead as advisors to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe put increased pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to further embark on its easing cycle at the April 30 meeting.
- Despite the long-term bullish sentiment surrounding USD/JPY, may continue to see a narrowing range as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.
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US DOLLAR
Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 12045.40 | 12088.61 | 12026.77 | -0.17 | 70.80% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar index may continue find near-term resistance around 12,082 (61.8% expansion) amid the slew of dismal data prints coming out of the world’s largest economy; still waiting for a more meaningful break of the bearish RSI momentum to see a resumption of the bullish trend.
- Keeping a close eye on the opening monthly range going into the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, but will need to watch the wires as Fed Chair Janet Yellen and New York Fed President William Dudley are scheduled to speak later this week.
- Failure to close above 12,082 (61.8% expansion) raises the risk for a near-term pullback, with 11,894 (61.8% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) holding up as key support.
Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 27) | 11:00 | -- | 4.6% |
ADP Employment Change (MAR) | 12:15 | 225K | 189K |
Markit Purchasing Manager Index- Manufacturing (MAR F) | 13:45 | 55.3 | |
ISM Manufacturing (MAR) | 14:00 | 52.5 | |
ISM Prices Paid (MAR) | 14:00 | 38.0 | |
Construction Spending (MoM) (FEB) | 14:00 | -0.1% |
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst