EUR/USD Bounces On Data

EUR/USD

The pair had traded sideways for much of the session, kept suppressed by the looming possibility of ECB QE and comments from the OECD who cut Eurozone 2015 GDP forecast to 1.1% from 1.7%. However, a beat on expectations for US GDP (3.9% vs. Exp. 3.3%), lead the pair to session lows at 1.2402 although this move failed to be sustained as it is unlikely to alter the Fed rate hike path. Shortly after this, 30 minutes past the US open, and a June low for US consumer confidence index (88.7 vs. Exp. 96.0), the US Dollar Index broke its tight range to the downside posting intra-day lows, and consequently supporting the pair. This support saw EUR/USD trade at session highs, around 1.2475, its highest print at 1.2478. Looking ahead tomorrow sees a host of US data including durable goods, Univ. of Michigan confidence and pending/new home sales.

GBP/USD

Early GBP/USD price action was dictated by the muted moves in the USD-index. However later in the session saw the BoE’s appearance in front of the Treasury Select Committee, although it failed to offer much in the way of market-moving comments as some had hoped for. BoE’s Forbes was relatively hawkish by suggesting that there could be less slack in the UK economy than originally estimated, however, GBP/USD was relatively unmoved by these comments. The miss in expectation for US consumer confidence was the driver behind the pair breaking above the 1.5700 handle to the upside printing session highs at 1.5716, as the USD-index again dictated price movement. Looking ahead UK GDP at 0930GMT will be the focus for the pair, whilst later in the session the US weekly jobs report and PCE deflator will offer movement.

AUD/USD

The pair trended lower through much of the Asian and European sessions, moving below the 0.8600 handle in the process, pulling back from last week’s Chinese induced highs. Later in the session, following comments from RBA’s Lowe who once again jawboned the AUD, the pair took out stops below Thursday's low before breaking below the Nov'14 low at 0.8541 to reach its lowest level in four years. Heading into the European close USD weakness saw the pair claw back some lost ground but approached the close down over 60 pips. Looking ahead some minor Australian number are scheduled tomorrow, but attention will be firmly on any further comment from RBA speakers or regarding further Chinese monetary stimulus.